David Gerrold is a well-known SF author. This is from his Patreon page.
Thinking About The Political SituationI work in alternate realities. That's what science fiction is all about.
So all of the things I am about to list are mostly plots for political thrillers. Possibilities, not necessarily probabilities, and equally so, not predictions. Just things to think about. These are extreme extrapolations because my mind works that way.
Let's consider the obvious one first. Consider a president who is in serious cognitive decline. The pressures of the office take their toll on even the healthiest of individuals. We can see that by comparing the photos of the day they took office with the day they left. So consider a man who is 80 years old, already in cognitive decline, and subjected to the daily pressures of the office. Even with dedicated handlers trying to protect him, there could come a day when we see the 25th amendment invoked — the replacement of a sitting president by his cabinet.
Under what circumstances would this happen. Suppose the vice president has been installed on the ticket by an extremist billionaire who has no loyalty to democracy. He might be the driving force for a 25th amendment solution. And if the various cabinet members agree, this becomes a real possibility.
But think about it — if an attempt is made to replace a president who has this time won the popular vote, and if that president gets access to a microphone, he will demand his followers to object to any attempt to revoke his authority. This turns into a constitutional crisis that throws the Supreme Court into turmoil. This is not a situation where the outcome can be predicted.
If the VP fails to send POTUS off to a premature retirement, he will be asked to resign. If he succeeds, well —
Consider the possibility of an unpopular vice president who once expressed his disdain for the president before he became his running mate ... and who is now in the oval office only due to the machinations of an extremist oligarch ...
Does he distance himself from the oligarch, because after all, now he's president? Or does he take orders from the oligarch? That depends on their relationship. If he tries to distance himself, the oligarch becomes his enemy and he will not necessarily be in the running after that. This unpopular VP becomes a very unpopular POTUS, especially unpopular among the cult members who will feel he betrayed their leader.
Therefore, the fanatics behind this president want to keep him in office as long as possible — out of the assumption that they can benefit from his authority, despite the fact that he is a loose cannon who doesn't follow anyone's instructions. He cannot be controlled.
But there are things that this hypothetical administration can do to up-end the free political processes in the country — they can go after media outlets, they can impose various kinds of voting restrictions that will make it impossible for the opposition party to win an election. They can secure permanent control while still presenting the appearance of free elections. Meanwhile, they can also plunge the country into an economic disaster. And worst of all, they can stop supporting necessary allies, especially allies that are in a death struggle with ... oh, say Russia.
Meanwhile, there is the strong possibility of peaceful demonstrations — or worse, demonstrations that get turned into riots by agitators or are met with violent police responses. But at what point do the crowds get bigger than the police? That's a whole other discussion.
And ... there are enough people who can see the very real dangers of a tyrannical government that a very real resistance movement begins. As more than one person has observed, no tyranny can survive the free flow of information — and we do have a technological society that will figure out a lot of ways to spread information faster than any government authority can detect it. Any good book on codes will reveal a dozen ways that both sides of WWII kept important information secret from the other side. And right now, just about everybody in this country has access to enough computing power to encrypt whatever they want to share with another person, free from spying eyes.
Here's a worst-case scenario, though. If the fanatics become dangerous enough, if the political situation becomes dangerous enough, if the blue states cannot create strong firewalls, then the west coast states could attempt to secede. CA is one-fifth of the national economy. And those three states also control all shipping with Asia. The US cannot afford a civil war. The New England states might also consider secession. While Texas and Georgia and Florida might have the resources to mount a war, I'm not sure they would be able to, or even be able to win.
A civil war here would give Russia and China the opportunity to invade their neighbors. China would go after Taiwan, certainly. North Korea might be emboldened to attack South Korea.
All of the above are possibilities for one helluva good political thriller. But in real life, hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions would die. The world economy would collapse. Millions would starve.
And if there was any kind of recovery, anywhere, it might be likely that those who would be seen as architects of that collapse might find themselves guests of honor at a guillotine party.
Now, here's what's a lot more likely. We will muddle through. Somehow. Because, based on the evidence of the past, the first thing that happens after a victory is that the victors start arguing amongst themselves and whatever plans anyone might have imagined get trampled in the battle.
Based on the evidence of the past, this particular group of conspirators that I'm thinking about would have trouble organizing a fluster-cluck. So if I were going to predict anything at all, right now it seems like we are heading into a prolonged period of confusion, disarray, and bitter unresolved arguments.
The rest of us will create new ways to survive.