Russian Collusion

With the release of the Mueller SOC report imminent (hopefully?) I'd like to speculate on its findings.  From public reporting we know of the following.  There may be more in the SOC report*, but we'll have to wait and see.

1. The Trump campaign was contacted by Russian emissaries early on in the primary campaign, possibly even before he decided to run.  They saw in him a candidate that could possibly win (and would disrupt the election even if he didn't), and somebody gullible enough to work with them.  Roger Stone and Carter Page are the main go-betweens at this point.
   
   
2. Russian emissaries hack the DNC servers (among many others*).  They offer the Trump campaign the stolen e-mails, through intermediaries and eventually in person at the Trump Tower meeting, but Trump's staff knew they were too hot to come from them directly.  Somebody, probably Stone, suggests a third party, Wikileaks, handle the release.  In exchange the Trump campaign promises to ease Russian sanctions and remove a plank in the RNC platform about supporting Ukraine.  
   
   
3. Russia unleashes a massive social-media disinformation campaign.  Twitter bots, Facebook ads, millions of fake e-mail accounts, and probably lots of mainstream media ad buys (through disguised 3rd party intermediaries) all push the "Crooked Hillary" and "Lock Her Up" memes.
   
   
4. When the Access Hollywood tape is released ("DNC dirty tricks"), Wikileaks springs into action and within hours releases the hacked e-mails. They turned out to be a whole lotta nuthin', but they provided some chatter that distracted from the Billy Bush grabbin' pussy tape -- particularly among Trump's low-information base and his loyal FNC cheering section.
   
   
5. Meanwhile Trump Tower Moscow was still an on-going project, dangled in front of The Donald to keep him engaged.  When he unexpectedly wins the election*, Russia quietly shut off the financing without telling him.
   
   
6. Russian oligarchs, at the direction of Putin, contributed a few tens of millions of dollars to Trump's inauguration -- to make sure it glittered for him.  They tell him it's the biggest crowd ever. He believes them.
   
   
7. Thus satisfied that he had Trump's ear, Putin begins private-channel (& undocumented) communications with him.
   
   
8. Putin suggests a lifting of sanctions.  Trump is unable to get this past his staff.
   
   
9. Putin suggests the US stop supporting Ukrainian independence.  This is done.
   
   
10. Putin suggests a normalization of relations with North Korea.  Trump works on this.  Putin suggests a cessation of joint US-South Korea military exercises.  Trump unilaterally orders this, to the horror of his military commanders.
    
    
11. Putin suggests a "hand-off" approach to Saudi Arabia.  Trump complies.
    

Now, of this list, probably only #2, #5 and #6 are clearly illegal, though relatively minor crimes.  The rest may be treasonous, but it'd be hard to make a court case about it.  Mueller is faced with the tricky requirement of making LEGAL, but unethical, Russian ties a basis for removal of a sitting president.

He may be helped in this by other, non-public discoveries.

* - Among the Russian interference in the election, I still think it is entirely possible that the vote counting was manipulated.  This would, of course, be extensively concealed and nearly impossible to trace, so there may not BE any evidence uncovered, ever.  If it's there, though, Mueller will find it.


In addition to the Russian Collusion investigation, of course, Trump also faces legal charges for:

1. Money laundering
   
2. Tax evasion
   
3. Violations of the emoluments clause
   
4. Illegal business practices, including (but not limited to): improper disclosure of debts to reduce insurance, failure to honor contracts, abuse of Chapter 11 laws, filing falsified federal and state income tax forms, discrimination in hiring and contracting, illegal NDA agreements, and many many other charges
   

The extent to which DJT was a creature of, a puppet of, a creation of Russian mafia money has been laid out in revealing detail by the New Republic.

How much of this is illegal? How much of this could be used in articles of impeachment? No idea.

But it’s pretty damning information.

People have worried whether the Kremlin has any leverage (financial or otherwise) over DJT, whether Putin is pulling his strings behind the scenes.

I think the extent of Russia's interference was in getting him elected.  They KNEW he was a loose cannon, unfit for any public office.  All they had to do was turn him loose, and DJT, The Cato Institute and the American Heritage Foundation would do the rest.

Our Republic is stronger than any one man, and we'll survive this awful presidency.  It might take two generations, however, to undo his damage.

It has often been mentioned that Deutsche Bank gave loans to DJT when no other bank would. This is why New York's AG has subpoened financial records related to these loans.

Now the reason DB was willing to take the risk -- when Trump had a well-deserved reputation for skipping out on debts -- may be coming into view.

This fits with the known facts.

The story is retracted, though not refuted.

Putin is freaking the fuck out over the possibility that his private conversations with Trump may be leaking out or being forced out via subpoena.

Hmmm, I wonder what's in them???

Paradigm shift.  Edumacation.

Republicans need to be educated, need to have the facts laid out for them, that what Trump has done, for and with Putin, is not in the US's best interest but is in fact deriving from a master plan of Vladimir Putin.  Republicans are playing right into Putin's hands, they're defending Russian interference, Russian misinformation, Russian chaos seeding.  I'm sure they do not intend to benefit Russia over the US but somebody needs to pull their heads out of their asses and show them that's what's happening.

Hopefully, once they accept that Russian interference is real, they'll see who it benefits, and what the ultimate goal is. Let's hope they wake up pretty soon.

The impeachment inquiry has a lot of work to do.

The psychology of DJT is pretty evident for anyone to see.

He never got any affection or approval from his father, Fred Trump.

Wikipedia wrote:

Trump was an authoritarian parent, maintaining curfews and forbidding cursing, lipstick, and snacking between meals.[33] At the end of his day, Trump would receive a report from Mary on the children's actions, and if necessary, decide upon disciplinary actions.[33] He took his children to building sites to collect empty bottles to return for the deposits.[34] The boys had paper routes, and when weather conditions were poor, their father would let them make their deliveries in a limousine.[34]

As a result, DJT desperately seeks approval from any man he sees as a "strong man," a "powerful man," a dictator or military strongman.  In other words, surrogates for his father.  To get this approval he will do anything one of them asks: cancel long-standing joint military exercises with South Korea.  Turn his back on his entire intelligence community.  Pull troops to allow for ethnic cleansing of our allies.

Putin is smart.  He knows how to play DJT like a fiddle, praising him in private before asking for outrageous favors -- all while keeping their conversations secret.  

Quote :

The constraints that Trump imposed are part of a broader pattern by the president of shielding his communications with Putin from public scrutiny and preventing even high-ranking officials in his own administration from fully knowing what he has told one of the United States’ main adversaries. As a result, U.S. officials said there is no detailed record, even in classified files, of Trump’s face-to-face interactions with the Russian leader at five locations over the past two years. Such a gap would be unusual in any presidency, let alone one that Russia sought to install through what U.S. intelligence agencies have described as an unprecedented campaign of election interference.

Trump, for his part, is powerless to stand up to an authority figure who praises him.