The Second American Civil War

The writing is on the wall.  It's pretty clear the United States is headed for a second Civil War.

The first Civil War was fought over states' rights, and taxation, and military priorities and a bunch of other stuff, but the overriding issue driving the whole thing was the right to enslave people.  Southerners saw their "traditional lifestyle" (which was barely a hundred years old) threatened by the moral imperative to pay all workers a living wage.

That war was bloody and divisive and pitted brother-against-brother (in several famous examples), and killed two-and-a-half percent of all citizens.

The next one doesn't have to be that way.

The South (plus Idaho, Montana & Alaska) have made it crystal clear they don't hew to the same agenda as the rest of the U.S., and rather than fight about it, the smart thing, the INTELLIGENT thing to do would be to initiate an amicable divorce now, without rancor, without fighting, without further damage to either economy.  Just simply re-instate the CSA, with a couple additions -- with the understanding that state borders may need some revisions as this thing shakes out.

Separate the governments completely.  Let the CSA try to live within their tax base (which they are currently unable to do) and let the northern states live within theirs (which will result in huge surpluses without the drain of the Confederate States).  Let the North invest in infrastructure and socialized medicine and guaranteed minimum income and minority and women's rights, and let the South retreat to their fanciful "antebellum glory days."

Enforce a border policy of unrestricted travel and immigration, so people are free to live under the regime they favor.

Give the new Divided States of America one generation to shake out.

At the end of thirty years or so, the South will be BEGGING to rejoin the United States.  With all of their natural disasters, on top of all of their man-made disasters, they will have quickly slid into a Third World nation instability and endemic poverty, disease and unrest.  Without a viable tax base, their economy will have quickly collapsed and they will have no credit to borrow anywhere in the world to prop it up.  They will have no infrastructure, no schools, no military, no healthcare, no industry.  But, oh will they have football!  Undoubtedly some autocratic dictator will arise like Robert Mugabe or Idi Amin to preside over the ongoing disaster, a tiny tiny wealthy ruling class and a 99.99% starving morass of angry citizens.

Last time, when the Civil War ended, restrictions were drawn up, conditions were imposed, in order to assure that the re-United States would remain stable and equitable.  Then Lincoln was shot by a southern White Supremacist, and Andrew Johnson -- a slave-owning southerner -- quickly reversed all of Lincoln's policies and allowed the South to return to their "traditional lifestyles."  As a result that wound has never healed, and the nation remains severely divided 156 years later.

That was a mistake,  We don't have to do it that way the next time.

Conditions for readmission to the Union should be strict, progressive, egalitarian, and non-negotiable.  In fact, it could be handled on a state-by-state basis, with the Confederacy shrinking to just the true believers, the Mugabes and Amins who are profiting.  Open borders (enforced) would assure that their kingdoms continue to whither until all they have left is a fortified kingdom of six out-buildings and a lot of guns.  At that point the Confederacy could be renamed "Branch Davidian."

Meanwhile, peace would reign in the Progressive States of America.  Yeah, I like that new name.

Been thinking some more about this in the intervening weeks, and my earlier analysis was too simplistic.  The differences are not geographic, at least not solely.  They're as much urban versus rural, where the "blue" states went 90% for Republicans (if you figure land mass) and 10% Democrat, but the cities make up so much population that the 2 or 3 counties that include the big cities carry the state, population-wise.

Therefore, providing a geographic barrier between the Left and Right would not be practical.  A lot of farming takes place in the rural north.  A lot of industry resides in the urban south.  Asking people to move is not practical or productive.

Then I started thinking about what benefits accrue to a neo-socialist left-wing agenda.  Universal healthcare.  Roads and bridges and an electric grid and dams.  Education.  High-speed internet.  School buses.

So sure, I can see why farming folks don't think they should have to pay for that.  Those are mainly city benefits.

But by the same token, when a farmer gets hurt you can't exclude her from the hospital, can you?  

Could you have a two-tier citizenship?  

• "Sustainers" who pay higher taxes and get all the benefits in return, like free healthcare, free college, Social Security retirement, rebates on electric cars... Kinda like living in Noway.
  
  
• and "Freeloaders" who pay zero or low taxes.  They are billed top dollar every time they enter a hospital.  They have to pay tuition in school, from pre-K through advanced degrees (you'd have generational poverty and illiteracy).  When they retire they're on their own, with no safety net.  They have to eat uninspected meat and vegetables.  They have to police their own communities.... Kinda like living in Sudan.
  

But I don't think two such different communities could live together in conjunction.  The Sudanese would always be slipping into Norway to shop and get healthcare, and some Norwegians would register as Sudanese to avoid taxes.

I don't see a workable compromise.

It really isn't just the lunatic fringe any more.

'Alarming finding': 30 percent of Republicans say violence may be needed to save U.S., poll shows

Lyin' Ted Cruz is all in. He even wants Joe Rogan as the president of the new Republic of Texas.

"The 1619 Project" talks about ways Republicans have sought to nullify Democratic voters in the years since 2016.  Some of them, identically to slave owners n 1860, have openly opined that majority rule will impinge on their rights as a minority to do whatever the fuck they want.  They have openly tried to limit voting in the big cities, where the majority of Democrats and black voters reside.

But here's the thing.  There are enough Democrats in the cities to out-vote the rural white voters. Unless you simply abandon democracy, or split the country into urban versus rural, the conservative white minority will always lose every election.

If they don't like it -- which they don't -- their options all point to anti-democratic reactions like gerrymandering, and packing the courts and state legislators and governorships, and passing voter restrictions.  Like the South after the Civil War—exactly like the South after the Civil War—there will be no "losing the war" and still "getting your way" unless they can change the rules on how democracies work.

Yup, Second Civil War seems like the only outcome -- I won't call it a solution, because like the South, the farmers will lose this war too.  There's no way to have "two Americas," one with infrastructure and health care and education and upward mobility and taxes, and one without.

LAST night on TV one of Alex Wagner's guests said political assassinations were coming. All signs point to increased, not decreased radicalization in Trump's supporters and they're armed and dangerous. It makes a lot of sense that the next step we can expected is targeted assassinations of specific liberal Democrats: local, state and federal.

"Karen and Steve don't want to take up arms. But if Republicans lose in November this elderly Arizona couple say a civil war is coming and, yes, they will fight. They have discussed it between them, and feel that taking up arms is their best option. "

Thank you Merrick Garland for not nipping this bitter fruit in the bud. Next thing you know we'll have an open civil war on our hands.

Every day brings dispiriting news about how deep the cancer has spread. It's painfully obvious now that one election isn't gonna fix the nation's divisions.

Not even two elections, if Dems win big in November and again in 2024. Not even if all the Trump fascists go to jail. Not even if the country is in a much better place by 2026 -- which of course is by no means guaranteed.

The dark money behind the anti-democratic movement is deep and patient. They'll be waiting for any opportunity to strike, any opportunity to sow chaos and distrust.

I am more pessimistic about this country's future than I ever have been before.

The far-right wants to throw out the Constitution and start over.

No more Social Security, no more taxation, no more Medicare or Medicaid.  No regulations on industry, or commerce, or banking, or food safety. The federal government would be reduced to, I suppose, just a couple dozen men regulating international trade and tariffs.

No army or policemen needed because everybody's packing.

Women and Blacks would not have the vote.

The borders are sealed to new arrivals, unless they're white and skilled.

IF this were workable by states, I'd say let them go ahead and created a 27 state New Confederacy. Like the original CSA they'd collapse in less than two years because such a design is totally unworkable. But unfortunately it's not a state vs. state division, it's urban versus rural, educated versus uneducated, secular versus religious. I don't think co-habitation is possible.

Because the southern states don't teach history, they're ignorant of this.