The Trump Virus

If I had made this up, nobody would've believed it.

Kayleigh McEnany wrote:

The science should not stand in the way of this.

Wow, there are stupid people everywhere.

Turns out, mass death is bad for the economy. Who knew?

Rachel tonite, the University of Washington modeling that Trump has been promoting just released a new analysis with three possible scenarios.

In the first scenario, we have 95% mask usage and practice social distancing and close down super-spreader events like bars and sporting events and church services.  Under this scenario we can expect 175,160 to 223,377 deaths in the United States by the end of 2020.

In the second scenario, mask usage stays the same as today but the economy closes back down again. Social distancing is enforced.  Deaths in that scenario range from 233,885 to 398,397.

In the third scenario, if we continue opening up as Trump wants and don't wear masks and don't social distance -- as Trump wants -- our death toll by Election Day will be between 288,046 and 649,583.  That's HALF A MILLION more deaths than today, in five months.

All on Trump's watch, on his recommendations.

But don't worry. It's mostly killing off black people and poor people and people without good health insurance.

Democrats, in other words.

Apparently the "anti-pandemic" movement has big money behind it. To what end I cannot fathom.  To be honest, this scares the shit out of me.

Quote :

The Save Our Country Coalition has outlined five key principles to abide by in order to reopen US society and preserve the American way of life:

I. Immediately reopen the economy, while implementing the best workplace practices to protect the health of our citizens

II. Restore the essential principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility by stopping the trillions of dollars of federal spending that is imperiling America’s economic future and dangerously escalating our national debt.

III. Incentivize the rapid rebuilding of our economy through proven formulas: tax cuts, deregulation, and lawsuit reform

IV. Preserve federalism within the rule of law and respect the rights of the states in dealing with crises such as the coronavirus pandemic

V. Protect the individual liberties of our citizens from unconstitutional power grabs by the federal, state and local governments

These people are equivalent to passengers who start burgling staterooms on the Titanic as she begins to list.

And they're not just posting wacko videos to YouTube. They're meeting with the Trump Administration.

Will this country make it to November?

One bright spot.  I'll bet none of them were masked up.

Five simple truths about COVID.

1.  It's too late now to prevent tens of millions, possibly a hundred million, infections in the US.  Not enough people took it seriously.

2.  Contact tracing is useless now.  The disease is too widespread.

3.  Test results are taking up to 14 days because the test centers are overwhelmed.  Test results delayed two weeks are of zero benefit.

4.  Hospital capacity across the country is not ready for the coming surge in hospitalizations and deaths.  They cannot be made ready.

5.  Therefore the projection of 649,583 dead by election day may be wildly over-optimistic.  100m cases -- 1/3 of the population, same as in 1918 -- times 5% mortality = five million dead.

NoCoPilot wrote:

OMG. I just realized Trump will use this crisis to postpone the November election.

Talk me down off this ledge. Please.

March 11.  I predicted this on March 11.

NoCoPilot wrote:

The unemployment rate peaked at 24.9% during the Great Depression in 1933.

Our rate in the next few weeks could hit 32.1% according to the Fed (another source said 35%).  Another said 39%.

Look for the chart above to hit 52.8 million unemployment claims.

There are now about 30 million unemployed.  April unemployment figures  in Michigan were 24%.  In Nevada it was 30.1%.

The economy shrank by 1/3 last quarter.

This is not a blip.

Herman Cain has died of COVID.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/herman-cain-dead-covid_n_5f1ef689c5b69fd4730fccd7

Is this the highest profile death so far?

Quote :

“Thank you for praying, everyone,” a statement shared on his Twitter account read. “Please keep doing it. He really is getting better, which means it is working.”

Oops.  Sounds like SOMEBODY FORGOT TO PRAY!

Okay, this is kind of strange.  None of the obits, none of the profiles online, none of the news coverage has mentioned that Cain is (or was?) a member of Trump's cabinet.


Oops, I guess that's Ben Carson not Herman Cain. Mia culpa.

NoCoPilot wrote:

Wow, there are stupid people everywhere.

Yup, everywhere.

How will this nation ever heal if people can't even agree on the facts?

I don't care what anybody says, this is some scary shit.

Covid-19 Sent a Healthy 40-Year-Old Man Into Life-Threatening Catatonia, Doctors Say

NoCoPilot wrote:

This is a chart of the 1918 influenza epidemic.  It killed more people worldwide (49 million) than WWI (20 million). 

The flu epidemic was first noted in 4 March 1918, with 522 cases among soldiers at Camp Funston, KS, although cases as early as January were later recognized.  Around 75,000 deaths occurred in the first wave in the United States, although it was exported globally due to WWI troop movements.  The first wave ended around June 1918, and overall mortality was just above normal for influenza.  The second wave began in August in Boston and Sierra Leone, and was much more deadly than the first, causing ~292,000 deaths in the US and tens of millions worldwide.  It receded in December.  January 1919 saw the third wave hit Australia, advance through Europe and the US, and in six months caused another several hundred thousand deaths.  A small fourth wave in Spring of 1920 hit NYC, UK, Austria, and Scandinavia, causing a few tens of thousands of deaths.

So, the "1918 Flu Epidemic" lasted from January 1918 to April 1920, a total of 28 months, or 2-1/3 years.

We are, at present, in month eight of the COVID-19 pandemic.  It was first recognized December 1, 2019 in Wuhan China.

George Santayana wrote:

Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.

The man who Does Not Read has a very tenuous grasp of history.

Some COVID masks are more effective than others.

• We passed 24 million coronavirus cases worldwide today
  
• Total deaths worldwide = 823,298
  
• USA cases = 5,955,728.  We'll hit six million tonight or early tomorrow morning
  
• USA deaths = 182,404.  By comparison 9/11 was 2,977, Vietnam was 58,209, Afghanistan was 2,216, WWII was 405,399.
  

The owner of the tracking website has also added a new column, showing totals per million population.

• World average = 3,095 cases/m, 106 deaths/m
  
• USA = 17,977/m, 551/m
  
• Brazil = 17,267/m, 548/m
  
• Mexico = 4,403/m, 476/m
  
• India - 2,338/m, 43/m
  
• UK = 4,825/m, 610/m
  
• Italy = 4,321/m, 586/m
  
• France = 4,095/m, 468/m
  
• Spain = 8,823/m, 619/m
  
• Peru = 18,173/m, 842/m
  
• Chile = 20,949/m, 572/m
  

I subscribe to a daily email from the New York Times. It kicks off today's mail with a sobering analysis.

America’s death gap

Here’s a jarring thought experiment: If the United States had done merely an average job of fighting the coronavirus — if the U.S. accounted for the same share of virus deaths as it did global population — how many fewer Americans would have died?

The answer: about 145,000.

That’s a large majority of the country’s 183,000 confirmed coronavirus-related deaths.

No other country looks as bad by this measure. The U.S. accounts for 4 percent of the world’s population, and for 22 percent of confirmed Covid-19 deaths. It is one of the many signs that the Trump administration has done a poorer job of controlling the virus than dozens of other governments around the world.



The specific numbers are only estimates, of course. They are based on virus statistics that are unavoidably incomplete. Most scientists believe the real U.S. death toll is higher than the official numbers indicate, and undercounting of deaths may be even greater in some other countries.

After the U.S., Brazil and Mexico have the next largest gaps between population share and official death share. They are also countries with less advanced medical systems, where some experts think the actual death toll is vastly higher than the official one. If that’s right, the true gaps in Brazil and Mexico may be as large as the U.S. gap.

But no other affluent country has nearly so big a gap. Canada and several European countries each account for a greater percentage of deaths than population, yet the differences aren’t nearly as severe as in the U.S.

And some countries, like Australia and South Korea, have a positive version of the gap. Japan is home to 1.7 percent of the global population but less than 0.2 percent of deaths. An additional 12,000 Japanese residents would not be alive if the country had merely an average death rate.

As I was putting together these numbers, I started thinking about how Americans should have expected their country to fare — above average, below average or maybe right near the average. The U.S. certainly has had some disadvantages in fighting the virus: It’s an international travel hub, which makes transmission more likely, and it had some of the affluent world’s worst health outcomes even before the virus arrived.

On other hand, the U.S. remains the world’s richest country, with vast medical capabilities, and the virus started on a faraway continent. All of which suggests that there was nothing inevitable about the U.S. performance. It is instead a tragic reflection of the country’s failed response.

NoCoPilot wrote:

5.  Therefore the projection of 649,583 dead by election day may be wildly over-optimistic.  100m cases -- 1/3 of the population, same as in 1918 -- times 5% mortality = five million dead.

Now Trump is talking about letting the disease run its course, letting “herd immunity” stop the spread. Joy Reid said this could result in two million unnecessary deaths.

My figures show more like five million.

This is a good thing why?

Rachel says 2.13 million deaths. That’s figuring a 65% infection rate to impart herd immunity and a 1% mortality.

Nowhere in the world has had a 1% mortality.