The Trump Virus

I've held off posting anything about this now-world pandemic, as information has been both fractured and, in the case of official US policy, plain wrong.

Fox News has claimed that it's another attempt by Democrats to impeach this president.  That gives a pretty good indication of how criminally wrong-headed Trump TV is being.  And the president takes his policy & scientific advice from them, not his expert advisors.

Angela Merkel today said 70% of Germany could become infected.  Annually, about 5-20% of the US gets the flu (which is similar to the corona virus), which translates to 9.3 to 49 million people, and 3,000 to 49,000 deaths (0.1 to 0.03%).  Since A). we have no vaccine, and B). this is a "novel" virus and nobody has immunity yet, and C). we still don't know all the details about transmission and incubation, the eventual infection rate could well fall somewhere between the 20% flu rate and the 70% guess by Merkel.

At present, the mortality rate has been 3.4%.  As science gets a handle on the virus this will come down, but it might take a couple months.  Poorer and less-well-organized countries -- like ours -- may well see the 3% mortality as a floor.

Therefore, with a world population of 7.7 billion, an infection rate of (let's be optimistic) 20%, and a mortality of 3%, that means 46,200,000 deaths are not only possible, but likely.  And that'll be within the next 3-6 months, the way this pandemic is spreading (exponentially).  In the USA (327.2m) that's 65.44m infections and 1,963,200 deaths.

Mostly the older, mostly the unwell, and mostly the poor and underserved.

This is bad.  Real bad.

Yes, it's bad. And now it has gotten personal. Load and lock, motherfuckers.

Trump just gave an 11-minute address to the nation on the corona virus.

On my high-definition TV, a very odd effect became evident. Trump’s head barely moved, his expression never changed, but his lips moved. The size of his head looked too big.

And around the perimeter of his head, particularly the left side and bottom, there was a distinct line that shouldn’t have been there.

I believe the image was a digital simulacrum.

These days it’s comparatively easy to create a digital composite, using a computer, and make it say anything. I’m not sure why they would do this, but it sure looked to me like the speech was faked.

The congressional physician told Congress, in a closed door briefing yesterday, that we should expect between 70 million and 150 million cases in the US.

At that rate, a 3% mortality rate would predict 2.1 million to 4.5 million deaths in the weeks to come.

OMG. I just realized Trump will use this crisis to postpone the November election.

Talk me down off this ledge. Please.

NoCoPilot wrote:

I believe the image was a digital simulacrum.

I never watch presidents speak, but I accidentally saw 10 or 15 seconds of this one. Certainly Trump looked somewhat robotic, but my thought at the time was that he was concentrating very hard on reading the teleprompter.

I imagine Trump is freaked out. He can't stand not being the headline on every news broadcast.

I look for him to do something titanically stupid to get ahead of the coronavirus in the news.

NoCoPilot wrote:

OMG. I just realized Trump will use this crisis to postpone the November election.

Talk me down off this ledge. Please.

Oh, no, I think that's exactly the plan. It will either not happen or the results will be presented as suspect enough that it won't matter. All he has to do is nothing and we know he's good at that.

The House just passed a bill to make testing free. It passed 363-40.

Next it goes to the Senate -- who Mitch McConnell took out on recess over the weekend. Because, like, there's nothing going on, right?

This is a good thing. Without it, test kits for the coronavirus cost $1200 each.

Here's a sober analysis from The Hill:

Maria Cardona wrote:

It is hard to describe just how much things have changed in the last 48 hours. The coronavirus pandemic fallout is rapidly swirling around us (literally), and communities are bracing to live an unprecedented but hopefully temporary new reality.

It is far more than unsettling; it is daunting and scary. It is a time when, traditionally, a country looks to its leaders and especially its commander in chief for encouragement, empathy and leadership. More than that, we also look to our commander in chief for the truth and for solutions.

We have not gotten any of these things from Donald Trump.

In fact, what we have gotten is irresponsible sugar-coating, political blaming, grandstanding and a botched Oval Office address that was remarkable for its lack of solutions, its xenophobic undertones and its outright untruths. That the White House had to come out and clarify several of the president’s statements right after the speech was jaw-dropping.

The president’s address was so bungled that instead of calming fears and reassuring the markets, it did exactly the opposite. The next day, the market had dropped an additional 10 percent and had its worst single day since Black Monday in 1987.

Since then, finally understanding the gravity of the harm the president had done with his lack of solutions-based policies, guidance and advice, the White House has declared a national emergency and had the president hold a press conference to try to right the ship that was rapidly sinking in panic-stricken waters.

All of this underscores just how unprepared this administration is to deal with a national crisis of this magnitude and specifically just how unfit and ill-equipped Donald Trump is to serve in the capacity of commander in chief during such a global ordeal.

Shamefully, we now know, but are not surprised, that Donald Trump himself, in an unconscionable act, suppressed the need to have more testing in order to keep the numbers of the coronavirus infection low because he thought it would hurt his reelection.

Consequently, the economic repercussions have been overwhelming. The plunge in the markets has made the administration take notice. Without the ability to brag about the booming stock market, Donald Trump has almost no chance of winning reelection.

Luckily, we do have leaders who understand what needs to be done.

Thanks to Dr. Anthony Fauci, we know our testing capabilities are anemic and our health care systems are not prepared to deal with what is coming. We know what works to try to stem the tide and “flatten the curve” to help our health systems deal with the coming onslaught of infections.

In the vacuum of leadership from the Oval Office, state, local and industry leaders have taken it upon themselves to implement the tough but necessary policies we have seen thus far.

The shutting down of schools, the cancellation of massive sporting events, and the postponement of conventions, gatherings, concerts and political rallies all underscore the seriousness of what the country is facing.

It's also notable that the guy most responsible for a lot of the pandemic preparations that this administration dismantled is still around. His name is Biden.

The music board I usually monitor opened a thread on the coronavirus two days ago, an unusual move for them because they usually assiduously avoid current events.  They're still shackling discussion by deleting without asking any mention of government mismanagement.

Nevertheless, in the 266 posts so far from all over the world -- Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, France, UK, South Korea, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and the USA -- there is a universal experience of shortages in the grocery stores as people hoard paper goods and staples, packaged food, meat, vegetables, frozen food.  Everybody is experiencing the same hysteria worldwide.

Hearing first hand about the draconian measures undertaken in Korea is sobering.  They have seen a reduction in new cases.  Everyone else is experiencing exponential growth.

It's become apparent this is a very big deal.

Last night I had a chuckle during the news.

There was a report on the Life Care Center in Kirkland, the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak in Washington. The footage showed a line of technicians entering the facility, each of them dressed up in full haz-mat suits with helmets and external oxygen tanks. They looked like something out of a Steven Spielberg movie.

What giggled me was seeing one of them stop momentarily in the doorstep, and cross himself.

Yeah. I giggled.

Every man, woman and child in the country should be tested for COVID-19.

Here's a thought: Equip the census takers with the kits.

Quote :

He added that the close trading partnership between ___ and China, and the government’s fear of disrupting that partnership had contributed to the early and rapid spread of the disease.

“Because of China’s status as the country’s principal commercial partner, the ______ government took inadequate cautionary measures to restrict and monitor travelers from China,” Dr Afkhami said. “Then, later on, ______’s lack of transparency and unwillingness to take robust measures such as social distancing and quarantine, particularly at the epicenter of the outbreak, helped spread the virus.”

Insert country name here.

Wow.  Even Faux News is hitting the Trump Administration (by quoting CNN).

Quote :

What's the reason for the run, especially when toilet paper isn't known to have any virus-blocking properties?

One is reason is that people are going to extremes because of conflicting messages, Steven Taylor, a clinical psychologist and author of "The Psychology of Pandemics," told CNN.

"On the one hand, [the response is] understandable, but on the other hand it's excessive," Taylor, a professor and clinical psychologist at the University of British Columbia, told the TV network. "We can prepare without panicking."

The novel coronavirus has scared many Americans because there is little information -- and there isn't a vaccine yet. When people hear conflicting messages about the risk, it affects how they cope and how they prepare, Taylor said.

The second reason: They aren't receiving clear direction from the government.

From Roland Wald, on Facebook: "It's understandable, because every time someone sneezes, ten people shit themselves".

Ever the opportunist, Trump is using the coronavirus crisis as cover to overturn some Justice Department decisions he doesn't agree with.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-considering-flynn-pardon_n_5e6e6b10c5b6bd8156f98cc2
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/justice-department-russia-companies-mueller_n_5e7013c2c5b6eab7793b0036

If ever there was a justification for the 25th Amendment....

Just when you thought Republicans couldn't get any more venal or stupid, one surprises you.

All this talk about bailouts for every industry hit by the virus. I think that’s wrong headed. The only source, ultimately, is the taxpayers and so it only delays, not eliminates, the eventual reckoning.

I guess I’m turning into a Republican.

Fascinating how Trump TV is now reversing course and admitting their mistake.  Unfortunately, our president takes all his policy advice from Trump TV and it's already too late for policy to correct the disaster he has caused.

US cases are skyrocketing.

The fatality rate seems to be settling in on 4%.

The US will see millions, if not tens of millions of cases and therefore 40,000+ deaths.  I hope there is a reckoning someday for those who willfully spread misinformation about this pandemic.

Okay, now this is getting personal.