The Likelihood of Impeachment

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Trump has called the holdup “unfair” and asserted, wrongly, that Democrats were violating the Constitution, as the delay threatened to prolong the pain of impeachment and cast uncertainty on the timing of the vote Trump is set to claim as vindication.

Deny him the “vindication” of a fake trial. Make him stand for re-election as a candidate currently under impeachment.

Trump is apparently batshit crazy over being impeached.

Good deal.

I wasn't aware of all this shit. (I knew Giuliani was pretty worthless, but still...).

Giuliani’s Ukraine Work Tied to Firm Whose Website Has Vanished

It'll all come out eventually, maybe not until he's out of office but eventually.  I suspect people will be amazed -- the conspiracy theory Giuliani is peddling to the president comes straight from Dmitri Firtash who is working directly for Vlad.  

The Iran assassination was Putin's idea.

The withdrawal of US troops from Syria and Iraq was Putin's idea.

The downing of the Ukrainian passenger jet was probably a SAM fired under a misapprehension -- though with Iran taking sole control of the investigation it remains an open question if they'll admit the mistake.

Moscow Mitch is now saying if Pelosi never passes him the articles of impeachment he'll hold his own sham trial and declare Trump innocent. Of course that does not preclude the new Senate in 2021 taking up the real articles if Trump wins re-election. If he loses the election he'd better find a neutral country with no extradition treaty.

It remains to be seen, I think, if a Senate vote without the House articles would even be legal?

NoCoPilot wrote:

They may have no choice.

They didn't. They knew as soon as it happened.

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The commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force said Saturday he informed authorities on Wednesday that a missile had downed the Ukrainian passenger plane.

Brigadier-General Amir-Ali Hajizadeh said at a press conference in Tehran that after he told senior IRGC members about it, the general staff of the Armed Forces formed its own investigative team, from which he was excluded. He said the plane was shot down by a short-range missile and was misidentified as a cruise missile by an air defense operator. The operator identified the plane as a cruise missile but was unable to contact the central air defense command to confirm it. So he had to choose between shooting it down or not, and he choose to do it, Hajizadeh said. The operator had 10 seconds to make a decision.

Hajizadeh accepted full responsibility for the incident and said once it became clear what had happened, he thought: “I wish I was dead.”

NoCoPilot wrote:

The Iran assassination was Putin's idea.

It needed doing though. I mean, I get the ins and outs of why the way he did it wasn't great, but even a broke watch is right twice a day and this one was right no matter who did it. Dude needed to die. I don't think the average Iranian citizen is mourning him either.

Respectfully Jenni, I think you’re wrong. According to widely distributed reports both GWB and Obama had opportunities to take out Soleimani but both decided he was more dangerous dead than alive.

And the millions of mourners in the streets tend to discredit your second point.

If the Senate holds a trial, hopefully Lev Parnas's documents will be germane.

I do not for a minute believe that the timing of transmitting the articles of impeachment to the Senate this week was coincidental, with the Lev Parnas revelations or the GAO ruling on the illegality of the Ukrainian scheme. I'm quite sure it was all timed out to apply maximum pressure to the recalcitrant Republican Senators who were indicating early dismissal.

John Bolton must testify. John Roberts is no friend of Trump.

Monica Lewinsky wrote:

this is definitely an “are you fucking kidding me?” kinda day.

Trump has appointed Kenneth Starr and Alan Dershowitz as his defense lawyers in the upcoming Senate trial.

One of them defended Jeffery Epstein & O.J. Simpson.

The other one made a mockery of the last impeachment.

Fitting, somehow.

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If the phone call does not fit, you must acquit.

Jared Kushner wrote:

One thing you have to remember when you work for President Trump is that you don’t make the waves. He makes the waves,” Kushner explains in his office, a silver bowl of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups on the table. “Your job is to surf the wave as best as you can every day."

Watch out for rip currents however.

Republican Senators are feeling the pressure, and lashing out in response.  Sounds like they have a plan (see below).  We'll see if Moscow Mitch can buy the votes he needs.

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It had been weeks since the House of Representatives passed articles of impeachment, and back home senators were getting pushed on what they believed a fair impeachment trial would look like.
Republican Sen. Susan Collins wanted answers from Majority Leader Mitch McConnell about the next phase of the impeachment process.

So, on the first day back to Washington after the holiday recess -- Monday, January 6 -- Collins brought a copy of the Senate's 1999 Clinton impeachment resolution to the floor of the chamber, and handed it to McConnell's staff. She wanted more than a promise that McConnell was going to follow the 1999 Clinton impeachment trial model, something he'd said over and over against publicly and behind closed doors. Collins wanted to see it in writing.

What transpired has been weeks of negotiations between the leader's office and aides to Collins, McConnell and Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Tennessee's Lamar Alexander, according to people involved. The group painstakingly dissected each word of the Clinton resolution, discussing what -- if anything -- would change, as moderates pushed for language that would require a vote on whether senators want to hear from witnesses after the House managers and the President's defense team made their case.

In between talks with moderates, McConnell and his staff brought in some of the most conservative legal scholars in the conference including Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Mike Lee of Utah, into the fold, checking in with them about how to deal with witnesses down the line.

That effort in effect aimed to ensure that the plan being hatched to address moderate concerns wouldn't invariably lead to a crumbling of McConnell's conservative coalition -- or more importantly, lead to a collapse of support from the President.

"The leader understands the importance of listening to everybody," said one Republican senator who asked not to be named to freely discuss McConnell's negotiating style. "He understands that some people have more pressing issues than others, and he can sort through difference between members who would just like it to be some other way, and members who really need it to be some other way, and at the same time making everyone feel like they were listened to."

Mitch McConnell is looking out for Number One.

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"It's pretty obvious it is not about the President," Sen. John Barrasso, a Republican from Wyoming, told CNN. "It is about Schumer's approach to become the majority leader of the Senate."

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Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, about to assume the role of ringmaster in the Senate’s impeachment trial of President Trump, would be the smartest man in Washington if only he didn’t let everyone know. His current mission is to protect Trump, but that’s true only so long as it doesn’t interfere with his own concerns. His personal priorities, ego enhancement, and desire for job security aren’t hard to spot.

Pelosi, playing a weak hand, has nevertheless managed to pull off the equivalent of artillery bracketing, restricting McConnell to a narrow path. If her high-wire act — delaying delivery of the impeachment articles until this week — creates enough pressure for him to accept witnesses, the trial will be more problematic for Republicans and provide a trove of campaign ad footage. On the other hand, if McConnell manages to dominate his caucus and block all new evidence despite the steady drip of ongoing revelations, he’ll have to worry about losing vulnerable members and, potentially, his position as majority leader. For once, his ego enhancement and job security may be at odds.

A recent cover of The New Yorker magazine depicted McConnell, Senator Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, and Attorney General William Barr kneeling side by side at Trump’s feet, polishing his shoes. In McConnell’s case, that’s not really accurate. He’s intent on polishing his own.

NoCoPilot wrote:

Trump has appointed Kenneth Starr and Alan Dershowitz as his defense lawyers in the upcoming Senate trial.

Dershowitz has taken the rather-extraordinary stand that the Supreme Court could overturn an impeachment. Not quite sure what he's basing that on. Nothing in this sphere of reality.

Alan Dershowitz wrote:

Assume Putin decides to ‘retake’ Alaska, the way he ‘retook’ Crimea. Assume further that a president allows him to do it, because he believed that Russia has a legitimate claim to ‘its’ original territory… That would be terrible, but would it be impeachable? Not under the text of the Constitution.

Trump evidently chose his legal team for their devotion to "Team Trump" rather than their legal competence.

Holy crap.

If this is the president's legal defense, he may well end up getting removed from office afterall.  What unbelievably bone-headed incompetence.

If they attempt to bring up this up in the Senate, before the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, they will get laughed out of chambers.

Mike Pence, one of the principals in the Ukraine affair and himself likely to face impeachment over it, has published a "deceptive, soviet-style" op-ed about impeachment:

Mike Pence wrote:

Vice President Mike Pence published a powerful, but deceptive article in Friday's Wall Street Journal that offers the White House position. Pence called for "courage" from Senate Democrats who, he contended, must be willing "to stand up and reject a partisan impeachment." He invoked former Republican Senator Edmund Ross who, during the trial of President Andrew Johnson in 1868, voted against the Republican Party to prevent the removal of the president. As Pence put it: "Ross was determined to render a fair judgment, resisting his own party's stampede."

In this op-ed, Pence has distorted basic American history and civics into Soviet-style propaganda, where the facts are intentionally turned upside down. Numerous historians have written about President Andrew Johnson's impeachment, and Senator Ross' role in his trial -- including Manisha Sinha, Brenda Wineapple, David Greenberg and David Stewart. They all agree -- and no serious historian disagrees -- that Ross intended to vote for Johnson's conviction, but suddenly changed his mind. Ross did not experience an epiphany of conscience or a surge of courage. Evidence suggests he was bribed.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/01/18/republicans-impeachment-cupp-monologue-vpx.cnn

Cupp has one point wrong though. Republican Senators are not afraid of Trump. They're afraid of losing the gravy-train campaign funds from the NRA, America First Action, and other GOP-connected super-PACs.

NoCoPilot wrote:

But the judge has already made up his verdict before the trial even starts.

Mitch McConnell wrote:

“There will be no difference between the president’s position and our position as to how to handle this — to the extent that we can,” McConnell said. “We have no choice but to take it up. But we’ll be working through this process, hopefully in a short period of time, in total coordination with the White House counsel’s office and the people representing the president in the well of the Senate.”

I wonder if Chief Justice John Roberts will read this, and think to himself, "Wait a minute?"

Roberts could FORCE the Senate to hear witnesses:

Ari Melber wrote:

If he rules on the precedent, in the last 231 years of American history the Senate held fifteen total impeachment trials, and it heard witnesses in all fifteen.  Every single one.

John Dean figures Trump's defense brief is so ridiculously "Trumpian" that he probably dictated most of it himself.

That sounds about right to me:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Answer-of-President-Donald-J.-Trump.pdf

This defense they've put together wants to fall apart like wet toilet paper.