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 The Likelihood of Impeachment

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NoCoPilot

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PostSubject: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Sat Dec 30, 2017 7:00 pm

More and more voices are calling for the normalization of impeachment of DJT, which is pretty odd for a president in his 1st year of his 1st term -- that's usually considered his "honeymoon period" -- but even with all of this talk in the air I can't see it happening with this Congress.  Even *if* Mueller comes back with charges in 2018.  

I think Democrats are promoting the idea in order to delegitimize Trump's presidency, in much the same way Republicans seized on every opportunity to investigate / slander / wound president Obama and Hillary Clinton every single day.  If you listened to Fox News any day from 2008-2016 they told you indictments and impeachment were just around the corner.

With Trump, I believe the legal jeopardy may in fact be there, and Mueller is quite likely to return indictments against Jeff Sessions, Jared Kushner, Donald Trump Jr. and Donald Trump Sr. (in addition to Manafort, Flynn, Gates and Papadopoulis already indicted).

But whether these would be grounds for impeachment... with this Congress...

House needs a simple majority vote to put forth Articles of Impeachment, but the Senate needs a two-thirds majority to convict & remove from office.  

Nope, don't see that happening.   Even *if* the Democrats win sweeping victories in the November 2018 mid-terms.  There simply aren't enough seats up for consideration to result in a 67% Democratic majority.

Balletopedia wrote:
There are 23 Democratic seats, eight Republican seats, and two seats held by independents up for election in 2018. In 2018, the Democratic Party will need to pick up three seats in the Senate in order to regain the majority they lost in 2014.

Nope.  Dems have 48 currently, and even if they held all 23, gained the 8 Republican seats and 2 Independent seats, that's still only 58 votes.  Dems could quite easily win a majority next November, but not the 2/3 majority required for impeachment.

So, no.

The orange clown will stay in office unless he decides to quit, or somebody invokes the 25th Amendment -- which has to be forwarded by the Vice President, and approved by a 2/3 majority of BOTH houses.  So no chance of that either.

Crap.  It'll have to wait until Nov. 2020, when 12 Democratic and 21 Republican Senate seats are up for election.  Will the USA last that long?
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:33 pm

On the other side, all 435 seats in the House are up for election.  Dems need to gain 25 to win a majority.  24 Republicans have already announced their intention to step down, so won't be running again. Only one incumbent needs to be unseated.  14 Democrats are retiring.  So I can easily see a 2/3 Democratic majority in the House starting 2019, that's only 97 seats they need to gain (40% of the Republican majority).  I wouldn't be surprised to see 60% swing on election day.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Sat Dec 30, 2017 10:51 pm

NoCoPilot wrote:
Crap.  It'll have to wait until Nov. 2020, when 12 Democratic and 21 Republican Senate seats are up for election.  Will the USA last that long?
Come to think of it, the clown will be up that day too. Never mind about impeachment. Embarassed
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Fri Mar 23, 2018 5:54 pm

Unless Trump pisses off the Republicans enough that THEY initiate it. Which is starting to look increasingly possible.
Ann Coulter wrote:


“I will never sign another bill like this again”

Yeah, because you’ll be impeached.
— Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) March 23, 2018
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:13 pm

Trump sucking off Vladimir Putin in public has raised the impeachment issue again. Really strong words being thrown around.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:44 pm

Quote :
Many Republicans joined the near-universal chorus of condemnation for Trump over his performance at his joint press conference with Putin on Monday in Helsinki. But while Democrats openly speculated that Russia possesses some type of information about Trump that spooks him, Rounds and other Senate Republicans scoffed at that claim.

“They can’t show me any evidence that Mr. Putin or Russia has something on the president,” [Sen. Mike] Rounds [of South Dakota] said.

Unless, of course, you read the Steele Dossier.  This shit is becoming less and less unbelievable.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Tue Jul 17, 2018 6:58 pm

There was a video on Facebook of a German news anchor cracking up when she reported that Trump called Germany "captive of the Russians". After a minute or two of helpless laughter, she gathered herself together enough to say "two words: peepee tape".
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:08 am

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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Thu Jul 19, 2018 12:19 pm

Putin went to Six Flags roller coaster.
One reason he hates America.

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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:42 am

Rudy has a point, the 44% of voters who approve of the Orange Hemorrhoid might well be upset when he gets indicted and impeached.  

Unless it is done in the strictest non-political way possible it'll lead to ugly violence from the NRA wing of the GOP. (Insert Putin's delighted cackling here.)

However, Jeff Sessions still has friends in the Senate and once OH fires him, the stage will be set for a successful impeachment.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:19 pm

NoCoPilot wrote:
Rudy has a point, the 44% of voters who approve of the Orange Hemorrhoid
It's down to 39.9% now. This is a really interesting series of charts.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:27 pm

And this is a really good piece in The New Yorker, Make me hopeful again for the future of journalism.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Fri Nov 30, 2018 4:41 am

Three remarkable things about Michael Cohen's plea

I'll add a fourth thing.

We've all known for a couple of years now that Trump is vulnerable under a number of other possible charges Mueller might bring: tax evasion, money laundering, emoluments clause, illegal business practices, lying to Congress, obstruction of justice, yadda yadda yadda.  This is why Rudy Giuliani has been working so hard trying to limit the scope of the Mueller investigation.

But what Cohen's plea reveals -- in stark terms -- is that Russian collusion is still the HEART of the Mueller investigation, and that there's real, legal, substance to it.  That real witches have been found in this so-called "witch hunt."  Trump, and his lawyers, will have no basis to discredit the investigation as exceeding its authority, or to claim that the central tenet of the findings is that Trump is innocent of the main charges.

This is devastating to the president.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:10 am

Jennifer Rubin wrote:
“I would predict here on MSNBC that when Trump leaves office he will resign the presidency 10 minutes before Mike Pence leaves office, allowing Pence to pardon him if there is not a Republican president to follow him,” Rubin said on “AM Joy” on Sunday.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:36 am

There was some impeachment talk over the weekend, after Mueller's revelation (to absolutely nobody's surprise) that Trump directed Cohen to make illegal campaign contributions by buying Trump pussy.  Thankfully cooler heads seem to be prevailing.

These first charges, dribbling out of the Mueller probe, are just feelers.  They're just designed to open the discussion, to prepare Trump's base for the possibility that their candidate is in real legal jeopardy.  Once the discussion is open, and the GOP starts thinking about what to do post-Trump, then Mueller will start releasing the real heavy shit.

At least 34 GOP Senators will need convincing.  Hiring prostitutes will not be enough, because the Republicans only have six women.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:55 am

The steadfast support for Trump in House and Senate Republicans GUARANTEES that Mueller will not release the next, more serious charges until after January 20.

He was testing the waters.

They failed the test.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   Yesterday at 6:46 am

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