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 The Likelihood of Impeachment

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NoCoPilot

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PostSubject: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptySat Dec 30, 2017 7:00 pm

More and more voices are calling for the normalization of impeachment of DJT, which is pretty odd for a president in his 1st year of his 1st term -- that's usually considered his "honeymoon period" -- but even with all of this talk in the air I can't see it happening with this Congress.  Even *if* Mueller comes back with charges in 2018.  

I think Democrats are promoting the idea in order to delegitimize Trump's presidency, in much the same way Republicans seized on every opportunity to investigate / slander / wound president Obama and Hillary Clinton every single day.  If you listened to Fox News any day from 2008-2016 they told you indictments and impeachment were just around the corner.

With Trump, I believe the legal jeopardy may in fact be there, and Mueller is quite likely to return indictments against Jeff Sessions, Jared Kushner, Donald Trump Jr. and Donald Trump Sr. (in addition to Manafort, Flynn, Gates and Papadopoulis already indicted).

But whether these would be grounds for impeachment... with this Congress...

House needs a simple majority vote to put forth Articles of Impeachment, but the Senate needs a two-thirds majority to convict & remove from office.  

Nope, don't see that happening.   Even *if* the Democrats win sweeping victories in the November 2018 mid-terms.  There simply aren't enough seats up for consideration to result in a 67% Democratic majority.

Balletopedia wrote:
There are 23 Democratic seats, eight Republican seats, and two seats held by independents up for election in 2018. In 2018, the Democratic Party will need to pick up three seats in the Senate in order to regain the majority they lost in 2014.

Nope.  Dems have 48 currently, and even if they held all 23, gained the 8 Republican seats and 2 Independent seats, that's still only 58 votes.  Dems could quite easily win a majority next November, but not the 2/3 majority required for impeachment.

So, no.

The orange clown will stay in office unless he decides to quit, or somebody invokes the 25th Amendment -- which has to be forwarded by the Vice President, and approved by a 2/3 majority of BOTH houses.  So no chance of that either.

Crap.  It'll have to wait until Nov. 2020, when 12 Democratic and 21 Republican Senate seats are up for election.  Will the USA last that long?
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptySat Dec 30, 2017 9:33 pm

On the other side, all 435 seats in the House are up for election.  Dems need to gain 25 to win a majority.  24 Republicans have already announced their intention to step down, so won't be running again. Only one incumbent needs to be unseated.  14 Democrats are retiring.  So I can easily see a 2/3 Democratic majority in the House starting 2019, that's only 97 seats they need to gain (40% of the Republican majority).  I wouldn't be surprised to see 60% swing on election day.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptySat Dec 30, 2017 10:51 pm

NoCoPilot wrote:
Crap.  It'll have to wait until Nov. 2020, when 12 Democratic and 21 Republican Senate seats are up for election.  Will the USA last that long?
Come to think of it, the clown will be up that day too. Never mind about impeachment. Embarassed
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyFri Mar 23, 2018 5:54 pm

Unless Trump pisses off the Republicans enough that THEY initiate it. Which is starting to look increasingly possible.
Ann Coulter wrote:


“I will never sign another bill like this again”

Yeah, because you’ll be impeached.
— Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) March 23, 2018
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyMon Jul 16, 2018 7:13 pm

Trump sucking off Vladimir Putin in public has raised the impeachment issue again. Really strong words being thrown around.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyTue Jul 17, 2018 5:44 pm

Quote :
Many Republicans joined the near-universal chorus of condemnation for Trump over his performance at his joint press conference with Putin on Monday in Helsinki. But while Democrats openly speculated that Russia possesses some type of information about Trump that spooks him, Rounds and other Senate Republicans scoffed at that claim.

“They can’t show me any evidence that Mr. Putin or Russia has something on the president,” [Sen. Mike] Rounds [of South Dakota] said.

Unless, of course, you read the Steele Dossier.  This shit is becoming less and less unbelievable.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyTue Jul 17, 2018 6:58 pm

There was a video on Facebook of a German news anchor cracking up when she reported that Trump called Germany "captive of the Russians". After a minute or two of helpless laughter, she gathered herself together enough to say "two words: peepee tape".
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyThu Jul 19, 2018 9:08 am

The Likelihood of Impeachment Pandt10
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyThu Jul 19, 2018 12:19 pm

Putin went to Six Flags roller coaster.
One reason he hates America.

The Likelihood of Impeachment Put110
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyFri Aug 24, 2018 10:42 am

Rudy has a point, the 44% of voters who approve of the Orange Hemorrhoid might well be upset when he gets indicted and impeached.  

Unless it is done in the strictest non-political way possible it'll lead to ugly violence from the NRA wing of the GOP. (Insert Putin's delighted cackling here.)

However, Jeff Sessions still has friends in the Senate and once OH fires him, the stage will be set for a successful impeachment.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyWed Sep 05, 2018 9:19 pm

NoCoPilot wrote:
Rudy has a point, the 44% of voters who approve of the Orange Hemorrhoid
It's down to 39.9% now. This is a really interesting series of charts.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyWed Sep 05, 2018 9:27 pm

And this is a really good piece in The New Yorker, Make me hopeful again for the future of journalism.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyFri Nov 30, 2018 4:41 am

Three remarkable things about Michael Cohen's plea

I'll add a fourth thing.

We've all known for a couple of years now that Trump is vulnerable under a number of other possible charges Mueller might bring: tax evasion, money laundering, emoluments clause, illegal business practices, lying to Congress, obstruction of justice, yadda yadda yadda.  This is why Rudy Giuliani has been working so hard trying to limit the scope of the Mueller investigation.

But what Cohen's plea reveals -- in stark terms -- is that Russian collusion is still the HEART of the Mueller investigation, and that there's real, legal, substance to it.  That real witches have been found in this so-called "witch hunt."  Trump, and his lawyers, will have no basis to discredit the investigation as exceeding its authority, or to claim that the central tenet of the findings is that Trump is innocent of the main charges.

This is devastating to the president.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyMon Dec 10, 2018 5:10 am

Jennifer Rubin wrote:
“I would predict here on MSNBC that when Trump leaves office he will resign the presidency 10 minutes before Mike Pence leaves office, allowing Pence to pardon him if there is not a Republican president to follow him,” Rubin said on “AM Joy” on Sunday.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyMon Dec 10, 2018 6:36 am

There was some impeachment talk over the weekend, after Mueller's revelation (to absolutely nobody's surprise) that Trump directed Cohen to make illegal campaign contributions by buying Trump pussy.  Thankfully cooler heads seem to be prevailing.

These first charges, dribbling out of the Mueller probe, are just feelers.  They're just designed to open the discussion, to prepare Trump's base for the possibility that their candidate is in real legal jeopardy.  Once the discussion is open, and the GOP starts thinking about what to do post-Trump, then Mueller will start releasing the real heavy shit.

At least 34 GOP Senators will need convincing.  Hiring prostitutes will not be enough, because the Republicans only have six women.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyThu Dec 13, 2018 7:55 am

The steadfast support for Trump in House and Senate Republicans GUARANTEES that Mueller will not release the next, more serious charges until after January 20.

He was testing the waters.

They failed the test.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyFri Dec 14, 2018 6:46 am

The Likelihood of Impeachment 45736499_2824139137615521_2242827171737370624_o.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_ht=scontent-sea1-1
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptySun Jan 13, 2019 9:10 am

After Trump is removed from office -- whether through impeachment, the 25th amendment, or simply being led out in handcuffs -- he will need to be prosecuted. The era of letting powerful people off scot-free if they give up some power has got to stop. It doesn't provide enough disincentive to stop future bad behavior.

That's why the exact order of the Mueller indictments will be so crucial. It needs to be done in such a way that Pence can't pardon Trump, Trump can't pardon Don Jr., Rosenstein can't be fired, et cetera.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyWed Jan 23, 2019 2:57 pm

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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyMon Feb 04, 2019 10:25 pm

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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyWed Mar 13, 2019 6:49 am

Pelosi has tried to dampen the enthusiasm of freshmen Democrats for immediate impeachment hearings, quite logically I think, since without a 2/3 vote in the Senate a House vote wouldn’t mean diddly.

Plus, Pence would in many way be worse than Trump.

So, best let the SCO do its job, bring airtight indictments against everybody, and test that “guideline” that a sitting president cannot go on trial.

Besides, it wouldn’t look very good for President Pelosi to have actively supported the removal of her predecessor.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyWed Mar 13, 2019 6:31 pm

And while the sitting President can't go on trial, the same can't be said for Vice Presidents, Congressmen, and family members. Trump may get lonely by the end of his term.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyThu Mar 14, 2019 10:27 pm

richard09 wrote:
the sitting President can't go on trial
That is by no means settled law.

There exists a third possibility that Rachel brought up the other day: sealed indictments. Trump may think he can wait out the statute of limitations on his crimes, but if Mueller has issued sealed indictments, to be opened whenever Trump is no longer president, Trump a) won't have a statute of limitations and b) will no longer be able to pardon himself.

Consider this.  Cohen and Manafort have both been indicted for financial crimes essentially identical to what Trump's been accused of.  In fact he was an "unindicted co-conspirator" on both of their *public* indictments.  What if he WAS indicted at the same time, in sealed unreleased indictments?  

At almost exactly the same time -- coincidentally? -- House Democrats opened 19 investigations into Trump's improprieties, after being briefed privately by the SCO.

What if Mueller apprised the House Intelligence Committee of the sealed indictments, then left it up to Congress to figure out how to remove the president so the indictments could be unsealed?

Meanwhile Don Jr., Eric, Ivanka, Jared, Pence, and probably a dozen others can be indicted when Mueller releases his report -- which is coming soon, because he's released his lead investigator/prosecutor from the SCO.
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyMon Apr 22, 2019 1:10 pm

I'm disappointed, of course -- although with twelve sealed investigations handed off to other prosecutors we may yet see the Trump clan in orange jumpsuits.

Meanwhile, Democrats continue to split on whether an impotent impeachment vote -- all for show, guaranteed to go nowhere in the Senate -- would help or hurt their chances of unseating Trump in 2020.
Need To Impeach wrote:
Democrats have been saying for months: “Let’s wait to talk about impeachment until we see the Mueller report.”

Now that the redacted report is here, they’re saying: “Let’s wait until 2020, and then we’ll get rid of this criminal president.”

Here’s what we have to say: We are done waiting, and we’re done watching our leaders in Congress continue to justify their dithering. Call House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and tell her it’s time to start the process of impeachment.

Speaker Pelosi is holding a conference call with Democrats later today. Let's make sure she knows the American people are demanding accountability, and that means starting impeachment hearings.

Almost no-one is talking about what a disaster President Pence would be if, for some reason, impeachment was successful.

And NO-ONE, that I've heard anyway, has called for the logical middle ground, a vote of censure which would require only a majority vote in both houses and would therefore almost assuredly pass.  Why the fuck not???
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PostSubject: Re: The Likelihood of Impeachment   The Likelihood of Impeachment EmptyTue Apr 23, 2019 4:53 am

Calls for ceremonial impeachment as an official rebuke of the president are getting louder. Everyone understands however that he'll not end up being removed from office.

The problem, as I see it, is that this whole public shaming system was SERIOUSLY trivialized by the Republicans when they pulled it on Clinton over a blowjob.
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