Malaysia Airlines MH370

I've been watching this closely. An eye opening lesson in how not to investigate a missing aircraft, but also how not to investigate the investigation of a missing aircraft. Just incredible. Can't keep my attention off it though.

What do you think happened to MH370?

First of all, I'm appalled that it is apparently possible to turn off all the avionics without raising immediate huge red flags. That whole thing about the engines continuing to ping was very eye-opening -- who knew the engines called home?

Next, you're right the Malaysians come off looking like Keystone Kops in all this. Why wasn't Boeing leading the investigation? Since air piracy is an international crime why isn't there a "non-denominational" international agency that runs these investigations?

What happened? Possibly the two passengers with stolen passports got into the cockpit and forced the plane to divert, in stealth mode, to the Andaman Islands. Why there? No idea. Maybe it was a compromise destination when they discovered they couldn't reach Iran, their original destination. The hijackers may have scuttled the aircraft in the water when they found they couldn't land at night at Port Blair. They may have forced the pilot to keep flying until they ran out of fuel. We may never know. I'm guessing only minor wreckage (seat cushions, luggage) will ever be found. They probably hit the water softly, sustained only minor damage, then shortly sank without a trace.

Quote :

The largest aircraft operated by China S flying between Kuala Lumpur, MY and Tehran, IR is a 777 with 282 seats.

News reports say the plane had a 2500mi range, although one says as much as 4000mi, which would indeed reach Tehran.

Interesting new speculation.

And criticism of same.

Of course Occam's Razor still points to a theft of embargoed technology or a water crash.

If it wasn't a suicide, then I can't help wondering about foreign government involvement. If that is remotely possible, then I would be checking whether anything like this head ever happened before and didn't catch international or media attention.

I tend to discount the popular suicide theory.

If suicide, why take 238 other souls with you? If suicide, why all the secrecy? If suicide, why switch off the avionics?

No, sounds like a hijacking to me. Whether successful or ditched in the water we cannot say yet.

Pilot suicide/defection discounted

http://www.kgw.com/news/breaker2/Portland-man-defends-Malaysian-pilot--250707711.html

Nice find. It seems obvious that if anyone is planning such an overt, show stopping suicide it would be obvious to at least a few friends or family.

What's the mystery? IT WAS ALIENS! Duh.

For those of us who couldn't be bothered to wade through the breathless folderol, here's the Cliff's Notes version.

The El Reg Pub/Dinner-party Guide

Aliens I tell you. Aliens! They steal airplanes and boats all the time (when they're not busy cutting up cows).

richard09 wrote:

For those of us who couldn't be bothered to wade through the breathless folderol, here's the Cliff's Notes version.

Yep, the northern tip of the arc touches Tehran. I'm still liking that theory -- only a well-planned government theft would have the expertise to pull off such a heist.

Unless somebody finds floating debris in the next few days.

Or the passengers turn up?

Well that's a whole other problem - how do they deal with the passengers and crew if it was a successful hijacking.

Yes. Each day that passes without word from them tips the balance from hijacking to crash. In fact we've probably hit that tipping point.

Unfortunately, dealing with the passengers and crew would not be a problem for some people.

Until - or if they find the airplane, the flight recorder, and the cockpit voice recorder, everything is just speculation.

It's a big damned ocean out there, so it may turn out that the plane is never located. If it was a hijacking, there are scores - maybe hundreds - of places where the plane could have landed.

Right now, I wouldn't rule out anything.

I'm leaning toward hijacking gone wrong, by someone other than the pilots, and an eventual and unintended crash in ocean. The speculation is that the plane was in the air for many hours. That says to me a destination was intended. But in the interim something went wrong, they fought back perhaps... lost control. Gone.

What we have heard so far certainly seems to support SAI2's position. The aircraft cutting communications and continuing to travel for hours after leaving its flight path does make one think there was something intentional in the plane's actions, that someone was up to something.

_Howard wrote:

Until - or if they find the airplane, the flight recorder, and the cockpit voice recorder, everything is just speculation.

Oswald did it.

It would be a bit of a stretch, but ample application of the butterfly effect might prove you closer to the truth than anyone else.

Debris found in the Indian Ocean last night, including some pretty big pieces (80'). Not confirmed what it is yet.

Links when I get to work.

Wow, the debris field is WAYYY the fuck south of the last reported flight line.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/03/20/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-satellite-objects/6641689/

I'm guessing it won't be related.

Edit: - maybe not so far. Debris may have drifted in 2 weeks too.

What's the fastest speed floating debris can drift?

Some of the equatorial currents -- what's the name for those? -- move at 5 knots. That's 3,000 km in 14 days.

[Edited for accuracy]

NoCoPilot wrote:

_Howard wrote:

Until - or if they find the airplane, the flight recorder, and the cockpit voice recorder, everything is just speculation.

Oswald did it.

Ha! I came so close to writing that.

NoCoPilot wrote:

Wow, the debris field is WAYYY the fuck south of the last reported flight line.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/03/20/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-satellite-objects/6641689/

If the craft had flown the southern route of the arc suggested possible by the data received, the debris location would not be far from the area where the airplane would have run out of fuel. So I can't reject the possibility. Remember that these aircraft can fly themselves without crew input - up until the time they run out of fuel.

I believe that there is still a real chance that what we are looking at is an accident. A line in an article (I believe the NY Times) mentioned that the aircraft was carrying an "unusually" large quantity of lithium-ion batteries in the cargo hold. If there was a fire in the hold which spread to the batteries, or an incident created solely by the normal heating and outgassing of these batteries, it could cause a condition which could have incapacitated the crew and passengers.

Now, I'm not suggesting that I believe that's what happened, but I have long been troubled by the practice of passenger aircraft carrying hazardous cargo. As long as we are hypothesizing, let's include the possibility of this incident being completely accidental.

_Howard wrote:

A line in an article (I believe the NY Times) mentioned that the aircraft was carrying an "unusually" large quantity of lithium-ion batteries in the cargo hold. If there was a fire in the hold which spread to the batteries, or an incident created solely by the normal heating and outgassing of these batteries, it could cause a condition which could have incapacitated the crew and passengers.

Nope.  The first turn west, off the scheduled flight path, was entered into the navigation computer by a trained person (sorry, there was an acronym for it - ACDS or something).  That deviation was intentional, unannounced, and illogical.  They weren't returning to base.  They weren't headed for the nearest airport.  They sent no distress signal.

Compelling theory but wrong.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/18/mh370_disappearance_chris_goodfellow_s_theory_about_a_fire_and_langkawi.html

It wasn't a theory, just a description of an alternative scenario.

NoCoPilot wrote:

That deviation was intentional, unannounced, and illogical.  They weren't returning to base.  They weren't headed for the nearest airport.

Of course it was intentional.
"Unannounced"? Well, the rule in problematic circumstance is "Fly first, talk second."
"Illogical"? You must have access to information I haven't seen if you can make that conclusion.

Let me repeat myself: Until - or if they find the airplane, the flight recorder, and the cockpit voice recorder, everything is just speculation.