Democrats rather quickly come up with a winning replacement: likable, photogenic, good on policy. The race gets interesting
Republicans get worried
Trump gets sentenced July 11, and his sentence is more than a slap on the wrist
Republicans start to panic
Open rebellion at the July 15 RNC Convention
After many ballots, Republicans choose a less-criminal candidate
The race gets REALLY interesting
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Sun Jun 30, 2024 7:27 am
Quote :
8. Michelle Obama
This is the fantasy option for Democrats — and we mean that in more than one way. It’s truly a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option. And the glass appears to be shatterproof.
In general I would say female candidates and black candidates have too many built-in "hell-no" voters to risk putting them forward, but Michelle Obama? If she could be convinced to put country ahead of her own reticence, she could not lose. The once unthinkable is starting to make sense.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
However, these are adults. In this 'break glass' moment I'm sure they'd put personal differences aside for the good of the country.
Last edited by NoCoPilot on Sun Jun 30, 2024 10:29 am; edited 3 times in total
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Sun Jun 30, 2024 7:46 am
Republicans do not have a wealth of talent to replace Inmate Don. Most of their possibilities are tainted with the orange brush.
The impossible requirement of tearing themselves away from the cult will be devastating, with a lot of infighting and backbiting. The GOP will not be able to settle the chaos before November.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Sun Jun 30, 2024 1:14 pm
One of the commenta5ors on Jen Psaki said last night that Democrats can't rely on a unicorn to emerge, a candidate like Barack Obama who came out of nowhere and was instantly likable and instantly strong on policy and who drew new voters in in droves.
This comment has haunted me ever since.
I believe he was w4ong.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Wed Jul 03, 2024 7:28 am
I have faith in the American people. I do not believe a majority of them would elect a wannabe dictator who is promising revenge as his sole campaign goal.
On the other hand, candidates who do not win majorities win elections all the time. If voters stay home, because they're not happy with the choices, then a small number of super-motivated voters can carry the election.
Biden is not motivating. At the very best he's milquetoast, at worst he's demotivating. If he's the best we can put forward, millions of voters will abstain, and Trump will win.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Republicans are trying to determine what the Democratic incumbent stepping aside would actually mean for the Trump campaign. And some believe the path back to the White House would likely be easier with Biden at the top of the ticket.
Efforts to keep Biden on the ballot may come from the right as well. The Heritage Foundation, a Trump-aligned conservative organization, has been readying for this moment since the spring and recently revealed a playbook to challenge attempts by Democrats to remove Biden from the ballot in certain states with statutory deadlines for naming nominees.
In a memo released last month somewhat presciently titled “Can they replace Biden if he freezes at debate,” the organization singled out three swing states – Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin – where Republicans could file lawsuits to challenge efforts by Democrats to change course.
Mike Howell, executive director of Heritage’s election oversight project, acknowledged that any winning case would heavily depend on the circumstances of a Biden departure.
Rick Hasen, an election law expert at UCLA, rejected the idea that Democrats would have any legal trouble putting forward a new name before Biden is even officially nominated. “I don’t put any credence into it,” Hasen wrote on his website.
Yeah, there's that.
Quote :
Senior advisers say they believe the 81-year-old Biden may have mere days to mount a convincing display of his fitness for office before his party’s panic over his debate performance and anger about his response boils over
God damn it. "Fitness for office" is not what's at stake here. It's electability.
Last edited by NoCoPilot on Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:35 am; edited 9 times in total
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
July 3-8 - The drumbeat intensifies for drafting Michelle Obama
July 5 - Republicans begin attacking her, causing a backlash
July 12 - Michelle Obama accepts her duty to the country, agrees to run
July 14 - Biden steps down, allowing Kamala Harris to assume the presidency
July 15 - RNC Convention chooses Trump as candidate
July 15 - Judge Merchan rules that one count of Trump's conviction--the consultation with his attorney general--constitutes an "official act" but all the rest of the counts for which he was convicted, 34 times, are outside the scope of his official acts. He sentencing will move forward
July 16-Sept 17 - Trump's attorneys file multiple lawsuits seeking to block his sentencing, all dismissed
Sept 18 - Trump is sentenced to 3 months in jail, with his report date set for maybe April 2025
Sept 18 - With Trump sentenced, Michelle Obama surges ahead in the polls
Nov 5 - Obama wins in one of the biggest landslides in US history
richard09
Posts : 4341 Join date : 2013-01-16
Subject: Re: .. Thu Jul 04, 2024 6:41 am
David Gerrold wrote:
Here are some things to think about. 1) The convicted felon has never won more than 47% of the popular vote. 2) Since 2016, we have eight years of new people becoming eligible to vote. The younger voters skew 60% blue. 3) Since 2016, many of the older voters, who skew red, have relocated to Shady Acres or other equally moribund facilities. 4) The convicted felon has managed to alienate women, blacks, LGBTQ+, immigrants, and other key voting blocs. This has downstate consequences. Republican candidates have lost almost all of their local and state elections in the past two years. 5) In the past year, the rulings of Extreme Court (formerly the Supremes) have angered and energized a significant number of voters. 6) The Republican Party has not raised as much money as it usually does. Several high-rollers are sitting this one out. 7) The convicted felon has replaced the leadership of the Republican National Committee with loyalists -- people who are loyal to him, but otherwise inexperienced with a presidential election. 8 ) The money that the RNC is raising is not going to the state and local elections. It is all going into the national presidential campaign. The RNC is closing offices in key states because there is no money to pay the staff. 9) No, check that. Only some of it is going into the national presidential campaign, the rest is going to pay the legal fees of the convicted felon. 10) Many of those who formerly supported the convicted felon are now speaking out against him, including former members of his administration. 11) The cognitive decline of the convicted felon is accelerating.
None of the above is particularly good news for the Democrats, because the Democrats have stumbled into the usual garment-rending performances of impending doom and gloom. However, there is this. Post-debate, donations to the Democratic party have increased. Post-debate, President Biden has demonstrated that he is still a competent executive. And Joe Biden has experience with three winning presidential campaigns. In 2012, the Democrats surprised the Republicans with a very sophisticated ground game, even winning Ohio against Republican expectations. The Democratic ground game for 2024 seems to be proceeding apace, with the party opening multiple offices in key states.
But wait, there's more. in 2020, the Republican National Convention did not bother to present a platform. In 2024, the Republican National Convention promises to be an unwieldly flustercluck, while the Democratic Convention is very likely to be a sophisticated litany of accomplishments and goals.
Most people do not start paying attention to the presidential election campaigns until after Labor Day. That's when it gets serious.
One third of the electorate can be depended on to vote red. One third can be depended on to vote blue. The election is almost always decided by those who consider themselves independents. The polls suggest that enough independents are likely to vote blue that the convicted felon cannot win.
On the down side, there will be attempts by followers of the felon to purge voter rolls and to rig the election results. They only need 270 electoral votes to put the felon back into the White House, so the danger is real.
But if/when he loses again -- we can expect the spoiled brat to again claim that the election was rigged, that the deep state cheated, and blah blah blah. We can probably expect some outbreaks of violence from the terminally stupid. But this time around, the appropriate agencies should be better prepared. But if he wins, the consequences will be far worse. This election is critical -- the most critical presidential election in living memory. Even if we have a blue tsunami, Project 2025 will reconfigure itself as Project 2029. We have to be vigilant everywhere.
Here is what any of us can do. Register. Vote. Encourage everyone around you to vote. Don't try to change the minds of the Flavor-Aid drinkers. Concentrate on getting the uncommitted voters to look at the choices. They'll make up their own minds.
Donate if you can. Volunteer, if you can. Be a poll watcher, if you can. Drive people to the polls. Work in the field offices. Be vigilant.
This election will be won at the polls. When voter turnout is high, Democrats win. We have to let everyone we know, friends, family members, everyone, just how critical it is for them to vote. Don't be disheartened -- that's what the Republicans want. Be energized. Be mad as hell. Be committed. Be the line in the sand to defend our Constitution.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Thu Jul 04, 2024 7:57 am
Democrats stay home. Trump wins.
End of democracy.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
So if the former first lady simply isn’t interested, what difference does it make that she has a double-digit lead over the presumptive GOP nominee? If this is all in the realm of fantasy, why take note of polling related to a hypothetical contest that won’t happen?
The answer has less to do with Michelle Obama and more to do with the Republican candidate she leads by 11 points.
To hear Trump and his acolytes tell it, the former president isn’t just a candidate, he’s also the head of a powerful political movement. What’s more, as far as Republicans are concerned, Trump’s lead in the polls isn’t rooted in an anti-Democrat sentiment; it’s the result of an American electorate that loves the presumptive GOP nominee and is clamoring to vote for him.
Perhaps, though in a match-up against the former first lady, Trump not only trails by double digits, he also fails to crack 40%.
The point is, Michelle Obama’s polling lead suggests there’s a broad political appetite for someone other than the former president. The challenge for Democrats is presenting those voters with a ticket they’ll be excited about.
Spot on.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:01 am
Quote :
Let’s dispense with one question right away: If Biden does decide to step aside, Harris will be the party’s nominee. That’s due not to any ballot requirement (the party hasn’t yet named Biden as its nominee), but to political reality. Harris is the vice president and heir apparent. Skipping over her would be taken as an insult to Black women, one of the party’s most important constituencies.
Hello? I have a solution.
Quote :
Harris might carry the baggage of things voters don’t like about the Biden administration, but some of his problems wouldn’t transfer to her. Would the Muslim Americans livid at Biden for his embrace of the Israeli government feel equally angry at Harris and sit out the election? Perhaps. The same could be true of the younger voters who have been lukewarm on the president.
Hello? Solution for that too.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:27 am
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Sat Jul 06, 2024 11:13 am
Quote :
Mr. Biden repeatedly waved off polling that Mr. Stephanopoulos cited to show Mr. Biden’s weakness, including a 36 percent approval rating. “That’s not what our polls show,” Mr. Biden snapped. He said “all the pollsters” whom he speaks with tell him the race is a “tossup.”
And that's a victory? A good sign? Dead even with a twice impeached, 4 x indicted, 34 x convicted felon?
Wake up Joe.
richard09
Posts : 4341 Join date : 2013-01-16
Subject: Re: .. Sun Jul 07, 2024 3:08 pm
Trump is trying to distance himself from Project 2025 now. It has finally dawned on the Republicans that almost all the christian nationalist agenda is wildly unpopular with the public.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Tue Jul 09, 2024 5:50 am
New nightmare scenario.
Biden refuses to step aside (ego, bad advice, dementia)
The already contentious Democrat party is torn apart by infighting
After many ballots the party power structure rams Joe through
Biden's decline accelerates, he's unable to counter any of Trump's rhetoric on the campaign trail
Biden refuses to use any of his new-found powers to rein in the orange turd
Come election day, tens of millions of disgusted Democrat voters stay home
Women and young people (newly registered since 2020) don't bother to vote for a senile old man
Trump wins in a landslide
On day one, as promised, he seizes the government and begins implementing Project 2025
Too late, people realize
Trump pardons himself & all insurrectionists past and future
Dissent is quelled by the Army and National Guard
Three liberal Supreme Court Justices are replaced
Tens of millions of immigrants, legal and illegal, are rounded up & sent to camps
Fruit crops go unpicked, hotel rooms uncleaned
Trump pulls out of NATO
Putin quickly hoovers up most of Eastern Europe
Trump renames the country Trumpistan, puts his face on the flag & currency
The economy collapses (like everything else Trump touches): 2000% inflation, US dollar not recognized outside Trumpistan, tens of millions die of starvation
FEMA is abolished, sea levels rise 65 feet, Florida and the Gulf Coast disappear (along with Manhattan)
Trump reigns unchallenged until 2032
In 2032 power is handed off to Don Jr.
In 2060 power is handed off to Don III
in 2100 a big meteor hits the Earth, killing all life. It had been corralled and redirected by rogue Democrats
Last edited by NoCoPilot on Thu Jul 11, 2024 7:39 am; edited 1 time in total
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Tue Jul 09, 2024 7:48 pm
Quote :
“Donald Trump is on track, I think, to win this election ― and maybe win it by a landslide ― and take with it the Senate and the House,” Bennet told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.
Even if "defeat Trump" isn't a strong enough motivator, a rallying cry to get out the vote, having an all-woman, all women's rights ticket would be. Just sayin'.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Thu Jul 11, 2024 7:17 am
NoCoPilot wrote:
Quote :
8. Michelle Obama
This is the fantasy option for Democrats — and we mean that in more than one way. It’s truly a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option. And the glass appears to be shatterproof.
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Thu Jul 11, 2024 9:40 am
Kamala is up to 49% (against Trump's 47%) but you know he gonna pull every trick in the book to tilt the results. If Dems don't win by at least 10% we'll lose the election.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Here's what I don't get. He has a perfectly capable, perfectly acceptable Vice. Why doesn't he step down, let Kamala take over for four months, and silence all of the hugely destructive chatter about his neurological health?
The longer Joe fights to stay in the race, and the longer the DNC gaslights us on his cognitive decline, the more damage is done. Voters disgusted, politics discredited, Trump gains credibility, time to build a winning coalition wasted. We want Democratic politics to be fact-based, honest and reliable. We're supposed to be the "good guys."
Quote :
In many of these conversations, sources blamed the president’s inner circle of advisers and family for what they said has become a painstakingly choreographed daily operation designed to prevent him from being in unscripted settings for extended periods of time.
He SHOULD have stepped aside the morning after the debate, when everyone had the wool taken from their eyes. We can't unsee that.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Thu Jul 11, 2024 6:14 pm
Joe's presser.
Yes, he's uniquely qualified to tackle the thorny problems in the world. He has more experience and yes more wisdom than any other candidate. He makes gaffes -- BIG ones, like mixing up Zelenskyy with Putin, and Harris with Trump -- but Joe has been gaffe-prone his entire career. It does not diminish his ability to govern.
But.
His ability to govern is only important if he wins the election, and right now he's losing. He's been dead even or losing this entire election season, which is not good for an incumbent president with a fabulous record, running against a twice impeached, 4 x indicted, 34 x convicted ex-president who had a TERRIBLE presidency. Running against Trump should be a cakewalk.
He will continue to lose the polling until November unless something changes, and something big.
Harris is polling better than Joe, but only marginally. There's only one potential candidate who would be a game changer.
NoCoPilot
Posts : 21082 Join date : 2013-01-16 Age : 70 Location : Seattle
Subject: Re: .. Fri Jul 12, 2024 7:49 am
You know what else drives me crazy? The constantly shifting deadlines.
Before the debate all the commentators said this was a make-or-break moment for Biden to show he was up to the job.
Immediately after the disastrous debate, everyone was saying the next few days would be critical in restoring faith.
A week later they said the weekend would be crucial to change the narrative.
The week after that they said Biden must come out and assure the public.
Before the press conference, it was touted as Biden's last chance to make a case for himself.
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