2024 Elections

Will Trump drop out rather than get shellacked?


Where would that leave Republicans?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-another-jan-6_n_66c8a843e4b0b61af203a798

Hopefully, Judge Merchan will take these threats into account when sentencing Trump on September 18.  A little jail time -- 90 days in solitary ought to do it -- would be appropriate.

A pretty good analysis of why MAGA wants to limit the vote.

Thom Hartmann wrote:

The topic of abolishing the Electoral College came up, and former governor Paul LePage (R-Maine) essentially freaked out. A national popular vote for president, he said, would be tantamount to turning America into a “dictatorship.”  Why? Because, LePage said, echoing an old GOP line rarely spoken in public, if the actual vote reflected the actual public, “it’s only going to be the minorities who would elect. It would be California, Texas, Florida.” And those states are filled with Latinx and black people.

States by population

• California.  38,965,193.  40% Latino, 35% white, 15% Asian, 5% black.  54 Electoral College votes
  
• Texas.  30,503,301.  40% Latino, 40% white, 12% black, 5% Asian.  40 EC votes
  
• Florida.  22,610,726.  51% white, 27% Latino, 15% black, 2% Asian.  30 EC votes
  
• New York.  19,571,216.  61% white, Latino 23%, 15% black, 9% Asian.  28 EC votes
  
• Pennsylvania.  12,961,683.  75% white, 10% black, 4% Asian, 3% Latino.  19 EC votes
  
• Illinois.  12,549,689.  60% white, 18% Latino, 14% black, 5% Asian.  19 EC votes
  
• Ohio.  11,785,935.  80% white, 12% black, 2% Asian.  17 EC votes
  
• Georgia.  11,029,227.  53% white, 32% black, 11% Latino, 5% Asian.  16 EC votes
  
• USA as a whole. 333,300,000.  59% white, 19% Latino, 13% black, 6% Asian.  538 EC votes
  

Roughly in the USA 197 million whites, 63 million Latinos, 43 million blacks, 20 million Asians.  

California, Texas, Florida & New York account for approx:

• 25% of the whites
  
• 28% of the blacks
  
• 61% of the Latinos
  
• 46.5% of the Asians
  
• 28% of the EC votes
  
• 33.5% of the population
  

I don't see how representative democracy would skew the totals.  Each state still gets only two Senators, and the EC votes are apportioned by population. The most populous states are under-represented by 5.5% in the EC, but that's not massive is it?

These four states are under-representative of whites (by 8.5%) and blacks (by 5.5%), but over-representative in Latins (by 27.5%) and Asians (by 13%). So it's not "Latinx and black people", it's Latinx and Asians.  Does anybody worry about the Asian vote?

And to my knowledge, the Latino bloc is not monolithic.  Seems to me there's lots of ultra-conservative Latinos.

NoCoPilot wrote:

the plan is to ignore the public vote, regardless of who wins, and by this backhanded technical move, take the election out of the hands of the voters permanently

Rachel's A-block this evening was on two major new efforts today to block this madness.

1. Governor Kemp has asked Georgia's AG if he has the power to remove the errant elections board.  Lawyerly opinion seems to be that he has every right
   
2. The Democratic Party of Georgia, along with the national Democratic Party, have sued the elections board, claiming what they're doing is illegal
   

Apparently, the elections board planned to vote on these and 14 more new amendments to the election procedures at the end of September, then decree that all 159 counties in Georgia have to follow all the new restrictions on November 5th.  The counties have stated flatly that'll be impossible, without any time to prepare or amend the ballots or train staff.  And apparently, it is exactly this chaos that the Trump-approved board intends, thus delaying Georgia's election certification, thus delaying the national election certification.

Hopefully they'll fail, spectacularly, as most of Trump's other cockamamie schemes have failed.

Trump's campaign team has been GENIUS when it comes to marketing to 10-year olds.


Only one problem: ten year olds can't vote.

Analysis of the election this evening by Steve Kornacki on Chris Hayes' show.

Basically, it won't matter if Harris wins by a LANDSLIDE. The Electoral College is such that it comes down to just two states -- Pennsylvania and Georgia -- both of which are 'must win' for both candidates. Harris could win the popular vote by 6 million votes, and still lose the EC if she loses PA.

Fucking archaic undemocratic EC.
https://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/trump-campaign-putting-literally-all-their-money-on-this-one-path-to-victory-218546757908

This surprised me.

Former vice-president Dick Cheney confirms he will vote for Kamala Harris

Quote :

The former vice-president Dick Cheney, a lifelong Republican, will vote for the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, in November’s presidential election, he said in a statement on Friday.

“In our nation’s 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump,” Cheney said of the former president and Republican nominee. “He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He can never be trusted with power again.

“As citizens, we each have a duty to put country above partisanship to defend our constitution. That is why I will be casting my vote for Vice-President Kamala Harris.”

Liz Cheney, who herself endorsed Harris on Thursday, first announced her father’s endorsement when asked by Mark Leibovich of the Atlantic during an onstage interview at the Texas Tribune festival in Austin.

“Dick Cheney will be voting for Kamala Harris,” Liz Cheney said to audience cheers.

“Wow,” Leibovich replied.

Dick Cheney is part of an evil cabal of extreme right wing demagogues who believe in torture and religious combat and the ultimate righteousness of power. And oil.

He is NOT part of the evil cabal headed by Vladimir Putin who believe in the ultimate righteousness of power, political assassinations, squashing of dissent and a malleable Orwellian reality. And oil.

NoCoPilot wrote:

Fucking archaic undemocratic EC.

Even though he is likely to lose the popular vote by a landslide (58.1% to 41.9%), pundits are still warning there's a 60% chance he will win the election because of the Electoral College.
https://catholicvote.org/experts-forecast-says-there-is-a-60-chance-trump-wins-election/
https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-surges-to-a-61-5-percent-win-probability-is-that-high-or-low/
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-bank-earnings-07-15-2024/card/bettors-see-higher-chance-of-trump-election-victory-after-assassination-attempt-bCoaMgTJqJzEfOzKkwlc

NoCoPilot wrote:

CNN just had a report on Republicans cautiously considering voting for Harris.  

Liz Cheney and her ICC-criminal dad endorsing Harris-Walz is huge. This will give permission to other old-guard Republicans to show some spine, hopefully.

The debate (if Trump shows up...) will be a slaughter -- not that it will change any minds. Trump has never faced a brilliant prosecutor like her before. Except in court, where he obtained 34 felony convictions, and an $88.3 million judgement for sexual assault.

Let's talk about campaign signs.

For a while now -- maybe before 2016 but definitely 100% true after -- rally attendees have been provided with pre-printed signs to hold up.


PRESUMABLY this is because it looks bad on national TV when Trump supporters hold up signs they have made themselves.

Although even some of the pre-printed ones are pretty unintentionally hilarious.

Trump is always projecting. If he accuses others of something, it's a sure sign he's doing it himself.

Quote :

“WHEN I WIN, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again,” Trump wrote.

“Please beware that this legal exposure extends to Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials,” he added. “Those involved in unscrupulous behavior will be sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.”

After having watched a few YT videos interviewing Trump supporters, showing a despicable lack of critical thinking and basic facts, I was presented with this screaming headline on HuffPost:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/2024-election-cats-harris-trump_n_66e1fa3fe4b055a0b2a4dd10

I guess, if the idea of democracy and basic moral issues are "too complex" for voters to assimilate, the election comes down to something simpler, something easier to understand, something even a 2-year old can grasp.

God help us all.

Thom Hartmann wrote:

Now comes Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller, who’s developed an intriguing way to predict election outcomes. Instead of looking at polling data — which has proved woegeously unreliable over the past decade, probably because of cell phones — Miller looks at betting markets and draws his trends and predictions from them. They’re dynamic, updated instantly, and real money is on the line so there’s no margin for error.

In the 2020 race for president, for example, the polls showed Biden barely squeaking by and, in the Georgia senate elections, polls predicted Kelly Loeffler would beat Raphael Warnock and David Perdue would defeat Jon Ossoff. Miller, relying on the betting data, not only called all three races accurately, but hit Ossoff’s 1% victory on the nose and was only 0.2% off on Warnock’s victory.

If current trends continue, Miller’s system is predicting a blowout for Harris, with her getting around 55% of the popular vote:

“It would be somewhere between the defeats of Barry Goldwater by Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Bob Dole by Bill Clinton in 1996,” Miller told Fortune magazine. “We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state.”

"Woegeously"?

NoCoPilot wrote:

Among the ways Trump intends to steal the 2024 election:

Change the system at the last minute to favor him.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nebraska-electoral-votes-kamala-harris_n_66eda868e4b016b76ff7a149

In Florida, the average age is higher than the average IQ.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/tom-walz-misspelling-ballots-palm-beach-county-florida_n_66f155c7e4b0af9094c4e753

NoCoPilot wrote:

Rachel Maddow's 'B'-block tonight was about how Trump is weirdly telling his crowds that he doesn't need their votes.  Yeah, and he told the Christian Nationalist convention on Saturday that if they vote for him in 2024, they'll never have to vote again.  We all see that as part of his master plan. But he's ALSO telling Fox & Friends and rally crowds that they don't need to vote for him now, in 2024.

Trump doesn't seem the least bit concerned about scaring off voters with misunderstood tariffs or attacks on Haitians, his only concern is monetizing the election to collect as much money out of it for himself as possible.

In 2016 I speculated he didn't really want to win. It was all a grift.

When he unexpectedly got into office, he realized a kleptocracy was a good thing and he could immunize himself from any charges over wrong-doing, while grabbing the nation's wealth for himself.

Now he's desperate to get back into office so he can once-and-for-all finish the job with his own people around him.

James Carville, bless his bald little head, thinks Trump still has some tricks up his sleeve, beside the Independent State Legislature theory.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/23/politics/video/james-carville-mary-matalin-intv-ac360-marriage-digvid

I shudder to think what they could be:

• Some kind of sliming of Harris
  
• Cancellation of the election over, what, violence?
  
• Supreme Court interference by, what, invalidating the 2020 election?
  
• Putin sending assassination squads after Harris/Walz?

NoCoPilot wrote:

President Harris's cabinet.

• VP: Mark Kelly ('cause Gretchen Whitmore said no, and she needs Arizona)
  
• Sec't of State: Hillary Clinton
  
• Transportation Sec't: Pete Buttegieg
  
• Defense Sec't: [not Lloyd Austin]
  
• Sec't of Treasury: Janet Yellen
  
• Att'y General: [not Merrick Garland]
  
• Sec't of the Interior: Deb Haaland
  
• Sec't of Education: Dr. Miguel Cardona
  
• Sec't of HHS:
  
• Sec't of Energy: Jennifer Granholm
  
• Sec't of HUD:
  
• Sec't of Homeland Security: [not Mayorkas]
  
• Sec't of Agriculture: [not Tom Vilsack]
  
• Sec't of EPA: Michael Regan
  
• Ambassador to UN: Linda Thomas-Greenfield
  

She may not have a choice.
https://www.aol.com/news/harris-team-considering-keeping-biden-090000162.html

Huh. I did not know this:

Quote :

It’s been more than 35 years since the nation has undergone a transfer of power in which the outgoing and incoming presidents came from the same party.

Liz Cheney's speech at a Harris rally in Wisconsin has gotten shockingly little media coverage.  I sincerely believe in the not-too-distant post-Trump future this speech will be studied in civics classes as the zenith of American courage and statesmanship.  It is masterful.


https://www.msnbc.com/top-stories/latest/liz-cheney-kamala-harris-campaign-trump-republicans-rcna174009

Donald J Trump wrote:

Liz Cheney lost her Congressional Seat by the largest margin in the history of Congress for a sitting Representative. The people of Wyoming are really smart! She is a low IQ War Hawk that, as a member of the J6 Unselect Committee of Political Hacks and Thugs, ILLEGALLY DESTROYED & DELETED all documents, information, and evidence. Her father, Dick, was a leader of our ridiculous journey into the Middle East, where Trillions of Dollars were spent, millions of people were killed - and for what? NOTHING!

"Low IQ" LOL.  Pot, kettle, black. The truth hurts.

Who picked up the story? Al Jazeera.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/4/liz-cheney-campaigns-with-harris-and-condemns-trumps-depraved

Let's game it out.

If Kamala Harris wins:

• She wins big, like 16 point difference
  
• Trump claims fraud & files lots of lawsuits but this time nobody's listening
  
• The criminal court cases against Trump move ahead, and he gets several more convictions
  
• With no chance of a political future he gets jail time
  
• Trumpism dies down over the next 8 years of a successful & healing Harris administration
  

If Trump wins:

2024 election predictions.

1. Harris wins the popular vote by 8 million votes, 52.4% to Trump's 46.2%
   
2. The Electoral College however is much closer, 268 to 252
   
3. The twenty disputed EC votes cause Trumpland to enact Plan B, claim the election was stolen, no winner can be determined
   
4. The three swing states who are unable to reach a consensus on their EC votes will be immediately challenged by Democrats, failure to certify is not an option and Harris was the clear winner in all three states
   
5. Local courts will be unable to reach a consensus
   
6. It'll go to the Supreme Court
   
7. After which, I cannot predict.  We may still have no declared victor by Inauguration Day