Iran Offers Olive Branch

John Bolton and Mike Pompeo are both gung-ho to send bombers and troops into one of the strongest and most-modern countries in the Middle East, and talked Trump into following along after (allegedly) they shot down an unmanned drone.  Then supposedly ten minutes before launch, Trump found out that 150 Iranians would likely die in the planned airstrike, and called it off.

Even Trump News doesn't believe that story.

What's more likely is Donny called Fox News host Tucker Carlson and was told starting a war with Iran just before the election would look bad.

Which is the LEAST of his problems.

1. Iran is a modern, industrialized society, unlike Iraq or Afghanistan.  Regime change would come with an incalculable price
   
2. During the '50s-'70s when the Shah was our ally, Iran bought lots of modern American weaponry and is armed to the teeth
   
3. Iran has the capability, and will, to strike targets of interest to America throughout the Gulf region (including Israel)
   
4. Trump has proven he'll take the advice of a TV commentator over his own foreign policy advisors.  Is Fox News read-in on the Presidents's Daily Briefings?  Are they allowed to see top secret intelligence?  Are they confirmed by the Senate?
   
5. If, God help us, Fox News decides we should invade Canada or Mexico, would anyone have a second chance to sway the president?
   

NoCoPilot wrote:

If, God help us, Fox News decides we should invade Canada or Mexico, would anyone have a second chance to sway the president

My god, what if Fox decided to invade MSNBC? Looking at the physical condition of the Fox talking heads, it's obvious they would have to hire mercenaries, but still it could get bloody awful. or Awfully bawdy.  or something else with similar syllables.

The House voted to repeal the 2001 AUMF but of course Mitch McConnell kept it from reaching the Senate floor for a vote. If ever any political shenanigans screamed out for cooler heads to have the sole power to declare war, this episode ought to make Senate Republicans desert Mitch in droves.

Wag the dog.

Trump will likely unleash a Middle Eastern war just before the 2020 election -- I'm guessing May or June 2020, since the Democratic Convention will be in July, and the Republican in August -- then make the case that it would be 'unwise' to hold an election during wartime.  He will order bombing strikes inside Iran, which will then lob a couple cruise missiles into Tel Aviv.  Iran also has a good chance of shooting down US bombers.

Chaos will ensue.

Saudi Arabia will use the confusion as cover to invade Yemen.