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 North Korea Scenarios

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NoCoPilot

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PostSubject: North Korea Scenarios   Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:48 pm

Washington Post wrote:
On Wednesday [August 9, 2017], North Korea's military said it will complete a plan by mid-August to launch four mid-range ballistic missiles over Japan and drop them within 18 to 24 miles of Guam "in order to interdict the enemy forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the U.S.," according to Yonap, a Korean news agency, which also said the military's top commander would need to finalize the plan.

To date:

  • July 28 - Hwasong-14 missile fired NNE on a high arc (3700km high, 1000 km distance) over northern Japanese island of Hokkaido.  Press reports say a more conventional low-arc flight path would have given it a range close to 6000 km, enough to reach US mainland.
  • August 29 - Hwasong-12 missile fired NNE over Hokkaido, 2700 km flight (height not specified)
  • Sept 14 - Hwasong-12 missile fired NNE over Hokkaido on a more conventional arc (770 km high, 3700 km distance)

There apparently has not been another launch since 9/14.

Guam is SSE of Pyongyang, approx 3380 km distant.  Therefore any of these missiles could have reached Guam, had they been aimed 90º further south.

North Korea is apparently not interested in hitting South Korea, a much closer target, due to risk of immediate retaliation one would suppose. If they fire toward Guam I wonder if the US has facilities to intercept?  Our military have stated that they could successfully intercept anything headed toward mainland USA, but with only one successful test under our belt that sounds optimistic.
New York Times wrote:
If the North Korean missile’s target was Guam, or the waters near it, shooting it down would be an iffy proposition. The first shots would be taken, most likely, by Aegis destroyers armed with what are called Standard missiles, the most successful antimissile system in the American arsenal. But to make it work, the destroyers would have to be in the right place, former senior officials say. A Thaad missile defense system, like the ones the United States has placed in South Korea, could also be employed.

If the missile were headed toward the continental United States, it could be taken out by one of the antimissile systems in Alaska and California. In tests, they hit the target about half the time, under perfect conditions.

What would Trump do?

One suspects he would not wait for Congressional approval, but would send a couple B1B bombers from Guam to Pyongyang to take out their missile launch sites.  Possibly the royal palace too.

What would North Korea's response be?
New York Times wrote:
Technologically, it would not be difficult to destroy North Korea’s missiles. American warships off the Korean coast could easily hit the North Korean launch site, which is near the Sea of Japan. They might even provide warning to the North Koreans to evacuate the base.

But unlike the Syrians, the North Koreans know how to strike back — on the South Korean capital, Seoul, or American bases in Japan. Not long ago, President Moon Jae-in of South Korea said he had a veto on American attacks on North Korea, and promised “there will be no war” on the Korean Peninsula.
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richard09

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PostSubject: Re: North Korea Scenarios   Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:30 am

NoCoPilot wrote:
Our military have stated that they could successfully intercept anything headed toward mainland USA, but with only one successful test under our belt that sounds optimistic.

A lot of work has been done since Reagan's Star Wars fantasies. Trump even said somewhere that just a single interceptor would take out an incoming missile. Well, maybe that's true, if it succeeds in intercepting it. The last estimate I heard, that was at least somewhat believable, said that if you detected the missile at a decent distance, launching 4 interceptors gave you about a 50-50 chance of stopping it. Presumably if you throw more at it your odds improve, but I doubt they ever reach 100%.
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NoCoPilot

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PostSubject: Re: North Korea Scenarios   Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:13 am

Your window of opportunity is very short. Like I said, in my reading it looks like we have had one successful test so far.

Lots of unsuccessful ones.

$30billion invested in this technology.
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PostSubject: Re: North Korea Scenarios   Mon Oct 16, 2017 6:23 pm

Winter Olympics, Seoul, February 2018.

Let that sink in a minute.
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