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 Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world

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richard09

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PostSubject: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyTue Jan 03, 2017 10:41 pm

You know how sometimes abortion rights activists point to a decrease in criminality down the road as a benefit of legal abortion? Well, there was something else that worked that way. (This is old, but I only just became aware of it.)

Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world
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kilo

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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 5:46 am

It's a good story — as is the account of the beginning of the practice. I miss the sweet smell of lead in exhaust fumes and the qualities it gave to paint. But not enough to want to see it return.
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NoCoPilot

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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 9:59 am

Quote :
"...if you add a lag time of 23 years, lead emissions from automobiles explain 90 percent of the variation in violent crime in America." and "If childhood lead exposure really did produce criminal behavior in adults, you'd expect that in states where consumption of leaded gasoline declined slowly, crime would decline slowly too.
That seems a bit of a stretch, or at least pseudo-science. Correlation is not causation.
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kilo

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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 10:28 am

Are they still using leaded gasoline in Chicago?
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_Howard
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_Howard


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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 10:50 am

Chicago's problem is too much lead in bullets.
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NoCoPilot

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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 11:01 am

Different kind of lead poisoning.
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_Howard
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_Howard


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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 11:12 am

NoCoPilot wrote:
That seems a bit of a stretch, or at least pseudo-science.  Correlation is not causation.

I think they have made a very good case for their conclusion. I've read numerous articles about this matter over the years, and it is certainly not pseudo-science.
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richard09

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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 1:35 pm

There's a difference between seeing correlation and from that postulating a cause, as opposed to postulating a cause and from that seeing the expected effect reflected in a correlation.
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NoCoPilot

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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 2:04 pm

Either way I don't think the "lead = crime" connection sticks.
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_Howard
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_Howard


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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 2:06 pm

Why not? Can you prove the null hypothesis?
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NoCoPilot

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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 2:22 pm

Lead pipes are common in other parts of the world, and lead was long used as a sweetening agent.
https://www.rwlwater.com/germany-grapples-with-lead-in-drinking-water/
http://www.competaproperties.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=162:lead-pipes&Itemid=440&lang=en
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/apr/21/ancient-rome-tap-water-contaminated-lead-researchers
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-29568505

Where is the link to crime?
Quote :
Tap water in ancient Rome, provided by its famous aqueducts, was contaminated with up to 100 times more lead than local spring water, researchers say.  Researchers in France said levels of lead in Roman drinking water were a concern, but were probably insufficient to cause widespread mental problems, or potentially drive up crime rates, through lead poisoning.

"It's marginal. You would start being worried about drinking that water all your life," said Francis Albarède, who led the study at Claude Bernard University in Lyon. "Even though they probably did not get degenerate, as some people say, or even get more violent, lead pollution might have been something to be concerned about."
But to be fair opinions do differ.
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_Howard
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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 2:33 pm

NoCoPilot wrote:
Where is the link to crime?
It's in the article which Richard linked to.

If you have any reason to reject their conclusions, that's fine. Tell us what your reasons are.
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NoCoPilot

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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 2:38 pm

_Howard wrote:
It's in the article which Richard linked to.
That's correlative not causative.

100% of heroin users started out drinking milk.
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_Howard
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PostSubject: Re: Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world   Getting the lead out: a quirky tale of saving the world EmptyWed Jan 04, 2017 2:40 pm

And what kind of evidence would you accept as causative?
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