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 Polls versus Electoral College

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PostSubject: Polls versus Electoral College   Thu Sep 22, 2016 5:12 pm

All the news reports are talking about recent polling which narrows the gap between the candidates to within the margin of error.

However, I also heard a report on a leaked memo from Clinton -- on a subject that has also been discussed by Steve Karnacki on MSNBC -- to wit, Clinton's lead in the high Electoral College states is nearly insurmountable.  Trump would have to win six of the seven swing states, and in those states, he trails by double digits.

Funny, national polls of voters can be SO REMOVED from what's actually important in predicting the election outcome.
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PostSubject: Re: Polls versus Electoral College   Wed Nov 02, 2016 12:08 pm

Looking at the recent polls and prognostications, one cannot tell a fucking thing about what to expect.

Some polls are showing Clinton ahead of Trump in electoral votes by a small single digit. On the other hand, Moody's Analytics, which has correctly predicted the winner of the election since 1980, predicts that Clinton will win by about 120 electoral votes.

A survey of early voters in Florida is interesting. About 1.8 million registered Republicans have already voted, and about a half million of them voted for Clinton. That survey indicates an eight-point victory for Clinton in Florida. Other polls show Trump winning Florida by a few points.

I can't recall an election in which so many polls were taken and in which the results were so divergent. Sigh. I miss President Dewey.
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PostSubject: Re: Polls versus Electoral College   Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:17 pm

Last night MSNBC reported that early voting showed Republican Floridians crossing Party lines to vote for Clinton, 28%.

Early voting, Democrats crossing Party lines to vote for Trump, 6%.

Is this exit polling? Or are they really opening and counting early ballots?
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PostSubject: Re: Polls versus Electoral College   Wed Nov 02, 2016 5:23 pm

That's the same poll I mentioned. They are calling people who have already voted.
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