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 Test Drove a Tesla Today

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_Howard
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Mon Apr 02, 2018 4:55 pm

NoCoPilot wrote:
So, does the loss of three people to Tesla auto-drive justify scrapping the whole program??

If you are one of those three people, the program loses a lot of its appeal.

My only point is that the system is not ready.
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:27 pm

What criterium will you use to determine when it is ready?
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:18 pm

I assume you mean criteria or criterion (criterium is a bicycle race).

I will consider it ready when it works properly.
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:02 pm

Define “works properly.”  Include relevant statistics.

And I assume bicycle races are not part of it?
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Tue Apr 03, 2018 1:22 pm

NoCoPilot wrote:
Define “works properly.”

That seems obvious.
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:50 pm

No it doesn't. Three people have been killed under very unusual circumstances: one was watching a movie, one stepped in front of a tesla on a darkened road, and one hit a defective jersey barrier.

Meanwhile, hundreds of millions of miles have been auto-driven accident-free.

I ask again -- is the only acceptable rate of accidents 0%?
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:24 pm

NoCoPilot wrote:
one was watching a movie,
That was not possible to ascertain. But even if he was, the car should not have driven into the side of a huge truck.

NoCoPilot wrote:
one stepped in front of a tesla on a darkened road,
Actually, I think it was a Volvo.

NoCoPilot wrote:
and one hit a defective jersey barrier.
Note that the car HIT the barrier. Would it have made a difference if the barrier had not been previously damaged? It's still a big piece of fucking concrete - something to be avoided regardless of condition.


NoCoPilot wrote:
I ask again -- is the only acceptable rate of accidents 0%?

You are the only one who has suggested that. And it's a bit silly.
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:39 pm

NoCo wrote:
There have now been THREE fatalities from Tesla's self-driving feature*.  The first one occurred after 130 million miles driven.  Not sure (can't find) how many road miles accumulated before #2 and #3.

The fully self driving (FSD) mode on Teslas has not been activated except in testing (the hardware is there and you pay for it; you just can't use it). Only the first stage of FSD, Tesla's Autopilot, has been active. As of May, 2016, Teslas had logged about 100 million miles with Autopilot activated. That number may be up to 300 million by now. The only FSD cars on the road are Alphabet's Waymo and some of Uber's cars.

In the US, there are 1.18 fatalities for every 100 million miles driven. Uber's cars have logged about two million miles in FSD, with at least one fatality. Tesla's have at least two fatalities in autopilot (not even FSD!). Those numbers do not impress me.
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:47 pm

So zero it is then. Nothing else would be sufficient.
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:39 pm

There you go again. I've not made that statement.
But just for grins, you pick a number that you like better than zero.
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:21 pm

And while you're pondering that number, consider this: what is the benefit to society for self-driving cars?
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:41 pm

The number I pick is 926.  

Remember, statistically 94% of all accidents are human error. Therefore, the sooner and faster we can get all human-driven cars off the roads the better.

Realistically, it won’t happen overnight. Realistically there are steps we could take which would have the greatest effect for the least investment. First I would embed wire in the freeways and design cars to travel at 80 mph with a foot in between them.

Rural roads and roads with pedestrians and cross-traffic  — as we have seen — present an exponentially more difficult challenge. Overcoming these challenges will be exponentially more expensive. The benefit is still there — more accidents occur under these more difficult driving conditions — but new technology will be required, beyond mere following a wire or having proximity sensors.

But listen. We can’t even get the EPA to keep emissions standards. What hope do we have for automotive safety standards?
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:01 pm

NoCoPilot wrote:
First I would embed wire in the freeways and design cars to travel at 80 mph with a foot in between them.

I want to stand at the on- and off-ramps and watch the fun.
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:25 pm

NoCoPilot wrote:
... 80 mph with a foot in between them.

In California, that's just called traffic.
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:49 pm

In New Jersey, they only do that during the rush hour, but then it's probably 70 (in a 55mph zone).
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PostSubject: Re: Test Drove a Tesla Today   Fri Apr 06, 2018 2:21 pm

NoCoPilot wrote:
First I would embed wire in the freeways and design cars to travel at 80 mph with a foot in between them.

You realize that something like this would require that only self-driving cars would be allowed on the road and that the occupants of the cars would have no control: with only eight thousandths of a second separating the cars, that would be a necessity. And, of course, if one car had a mechanical problem, everything comes to a standstill for hours while the debris from the massive collision is cleared up.

But you are on the right track: the roadways must be designed specifically for autonomous vehicles. But the cost would be in the trillions of dollars for redesigning and rebuilding the roads. And that would not include local roadways. I don't think there is any way to make rural and small urban streets suitable for self-drivers. And most fatalities occur on rural roads.
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