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 What are Trump's chances?

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_Howard
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Thu Mar 24, 2016 9:44 am

Looking at the latest delegate count, Trump needs 52% of the remaining delegates to hit 1,237 and Cruz needs 82% of them to hit the mark.

All things considered, I would rather see Trump win it than Cruz. Trump is a loud-mouthed buffoon, but I think Cruz could be truly dangerous.

Also, I think Trump has a better chance of losing than does Cruz.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Thu Mar 24, 2016 9:50 am

I see a contested convention with a third candidate emerging. Neither Cruz or Trump will carry the banner -- and the old money knows it.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Thu Mar 24, 2016 11:41 am

Yeah, a contested convention has been in the making for some time. As soon as Trump became a serious contender, the old boys decided he had to go away.

Of course, the majority of the Republicans in office despise Cruz more than they do Trump, so the convention fight might get interesting.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 8:46 am

Ryan or Kasich or Paul.

Or somebody totally outside the process, somebody with nationwide name recognition and respect.  Just not sure who that'd be right now.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 8:58 am

NoCoPilot wrote:
Or somebody totally outside the process, somebody with nationwide name recognition and respect.

And there is the problem.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 9:13 am

Yep -- but they do exist. An actor, or scientist, or astronaut, or businessman. Prolly not a politician.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 9:35 am

NoCoPilot wrote:
Yep -- but they do exist.  An actor, or scientist, or astronaut, or businessman.  Prolly not a politician.

But we're talking about Republicans.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:03 am

The OLD Republicans, not the new anarcho-libertarian Koch loyalists.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:40 am

Old Republicans like Mitch McConnell? Or John Boehner?

An old Republican like Robert La Follette would be okay with me.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:43 am

No. Mitch is a Koch stooge and Boehner quit politics.

I'm talking about old school, old money, not necessarily office holders but men who hold positions of power in Republican politics.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:46 am

_Howard wrote:
An old Republican like Robert La Follette would be okay with me.
Ha! He was profiled on Chris Hayes last night.

Trouble is he died in 1925.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:49 am

NoCoPilot wrote:
Trouble is he died in 1925.
Is there anything in the Constitution that prevents him from being elected today?

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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 10:58 am

As far as I can see, Barack Obama would fit right in to the Republican party of the 80s and early 90s. He's not really leftist at all.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 11:02 am

Unfortunately, you're right, Richard. That was well known by those paying attention the first time he ran for prez. Hell, my wife and I have always referred to Bill Clinton as the best Republican president of the twentieth century.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 11:13 am

_Howard wrote:
NoCoPilot wrote:
Trouble is he died in 1925.
Is there anything in the Constitution that prevents him from being elected today?
Taking the Oath of Office.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 11:16 am

richard09 wrote:
As far as I can see, Barack Obama would fit right in to the Republican party of the 80s and early 90s.
That's thanks to the Koch brothers and their donor networks. They have changed the dynamic, moved the discussion in this country since the 1980s. What was mainstream Republicanism in 1978 is now mainstream Democratism.

What is mainstream Republicanism today was John Bircher radical extremism in 1978.
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PostSubject: Re: What are Trump's chances?   Fri Mar 25, 2016 11:29 am

NoCoPilot wrote:
Taking the Oath of Office.
Yeah. That would be a deal breaker.
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