Who Does Trump Hurt?

I was thinking about the 2016 election and there are some very interesting dynamics.

Trump won't get the GOP nomination; that's a given.

Now, if he was smart he'd pull in his claws and slink off to make more money.  However I suspect like Ross Perot he's got his ego all wrapped up in this thing and that means he'd consider running as an independent (create his own "I'm Rich! Party" perhaps).  I was thinking today about what that would mean for the other candidates in the race.

If Hillary is the Democratic nominee as expected, and Jeb is the GOP nominee as expected, I don't think Trump would hurt Hillary at all.  He'd have more effect on Bush, because there's a substantial libertarian segment of the GOP (Tea Party et al) that Bush does not address.  He might actually function as a spoiler, splitting the GOP vote and giving the election to Hillary.

On the other hand, if Hillary melts down before the convention (Fox News is reporting felony charges will be filed against her for "e-mail-gate", but consider the source), then either Biden or Sanders will carry the nomination.

If it's Biden, he'll be a lot like Hillary and untouched by Trump.

UNLESS he chooses Warren as his running mate, which would be a brilliant move as she is a guaranteed vote getter for the libertarians in the Democratic Party.  But then Trump would be drawing votes from Biden/Warren, and might actually throw the election to Bush.

Or, Bernie Sanders could get the nomination, again pulling libertarian votes from Dems and Repubs alike, and Trump would be swimming in the same pool.

Fascinating dynamics.

The GOP is scared to death that Trump will run with a third party. I don't think there's much danger in Trump pulling many voters from any of the Democratic candidates.

Reince Pribus would probably prefer Trump ran as an independent, so the GOP can control the platform and pander to the Koch brothers and other big money interests instead of "wasting time" on non-issues like immigration and Wall Street reform.

Reince Pribus has no idea what he's talking about. How smart can he be when he doesn't even have the good sense to change his stupid name?

Trump is steadily issuing dog-whistles for all the racists and xenophobes and seems clearly anti-female also. So he draws heavily from the Republican base. If he manages to attract any Democrats, the numbers will be much smaller.

I'm not sure if this guy thinks Trump might win or what.

10 Times White Nationalists Supported Donald Trump (and Why This Should Scare You)

Quote :

Despite the dozens of trend pieces over the past few years about shifting voting demographics, the harsh reality remains that the United States is still an exceedingly white place. And those white people, especially white men, still wield the overwhelming amount of power.

I think the author wrote "the United States" when he meant to write "the GOP."

Minority voters elected Obama.  

They will not do the same for Trump.

He's getting a lot of press from the xenophobic FNN and draws crowds of people who have to be asked to leave their sheets at the door, but that does not mean he has a prayer of getting elected.

I think the guy means that there are a lot of dumm racists who don't usually vote, and might turn out for Trump. Assuming that's true, and it may well be, I'm not convinced that it would be enough to turn Trump into der führer. But it is disgusting that that's the path Trump has chosen.

It's equally likely that a Trump candidacy would mobilize the Latino vote.

richard09 wrote:

But it is disgusting that that's the path Trump has chosen.

Listen, Trump hasn't "chosen" to play a big dumb racist asshole, he *is* a big dumb racist asshole. Like Ross Perot (if you're old enough to remember the 1992 elections) he's a rich guy with an ego the size of Texas who thinks running a country is exactly like running a company. That's how dumb he is.

Why nobody has asked him about "firing Congress" or using the military to open overseas markets I cannot imagine. His answers would be priceless.

Which of the possible Democratic candidates - Biden, Clinton, Sanders - would you most enjoy watching in a debate with Trump?

Sanders. The other two are too polite, which he does not deserve.

If the GOP can't get Trump off the stump by the end of the year they're going to have big trouble next year, controlling the dialog and rallying the base. The longer this sham continues the more it solidifies a Democratic win in November.

They can't BUY him off. They can't shame him off. They can't appeal to his common sense.

They might need to offer him the Secretary of Homeland Security cabinet post so he can build his wall, then fire him two weeks after the election.

NoCoPilot wrote:

Minority voters elected Obama.  They will not do the same for Trump.

Latinos and African-Americans voted overwhelmingly for Obama.  There are no candidates in the running yet who garner that same across-the-board support.

Latinos may be attracted to Marco Rubio and his Cuban immigrant backstory, depending on how he spins the immigration debate.  Or they may go for Jeb Bush who speaks fluent Spanish and is conversant with the Mexican, Cuban and Latin American issues.

Blacks LOVE the Clintons for some reason, possibly because they're from Arkansas, possibly because they confuse them with George Clinton.

Sanders appeals to white liberals.  Remains to be seen how he'll fare among disaffected minority voters.  His message isn't geared to them yet I don't think.

Biden appeals to... to... I don't know.  Who does Biden appeal to?

Trump has the KKK vote, Christy the Mafia vote, Rand Paul has the vote of other mental patients.

This is mildly hilarious, but I didn't think it was worth starting a new thread.

Fox v Trump is one of the more bizarre bits of this silly season.